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HomeFootball PredictionsCONMEBOL LibertadoresBoca Juniors vs Universidad Católica Preview: Injury-Hit Boca Face Must-Win La Bombonera Test
Match Prediction

Boca Juniors vs Universidad Católica Preview: Injury-Hit Boca Face Must-Win La Bombonera Test

Analytical preview of the Copa Libertadores Group D decider between Boca Juniors and Universidad Católica at La Bombonera on May 29 2026.

Our prediction
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
1-2
Universidad Católica
Universidad Católica

Boca Juniors host already qualified Universidad Católica at La Bombonera on May 29 with kick off at 00:30 UTC, needing at least a draw to stay in the Copa Libertadores main draw, a task made considerably harder by one of the longest injury lists they have carried into a competitive fixture in recent memory.

Neither Claudio Úbeda nor Daniel Garnero has faced the other before, with Úbeda taking charge of Boca in October 2025 following Miguel Ángel Russo's death and Garnero arriving at Universidad Católica only in June 2025 - two Argentine coaches with no shared history and the highest possible stakes dividing them.

Boca Juniors vs Universidad Católica article image 1
Credit: DepositPhotos

Universidad Católica go into this having already secured top spot in Group D with 10 points from five matches, so the result is consequence free for the visitors. Boca sit third on seven points, their campaign held together by that 2-1 first leg win in Santiago but repeatedly undermined by dropped points against Cruzeiro and Barcelona SC.

Agustín Marchesín is out with a cruciate injury and Edinson Cavani, Adam Bareiro, Rodrigo Battaglia, Miguel Merentiel, Exequiel Zeballos and Ayrton Costa are all unavailable too. Santiago Ascacíbar's suspension then strips the midfield bare further still. The expected XI has Leandro Brey in goal, a central defensive partnership of Lautaro Di Lollo and Lautaro Blanco and a midfield built around Ander Herrera and Tomás Belmonte, a spine with no recognised striker in front of it. Universidad Católica are missing Gary Medel, Diego Valencia, Juan Ignacio Díaz and Tomás Asta-Buruaga but Zampedri leads a forward line that remains largely intact despite those absences.

Boca will have to absorb pressure for long stretches and will need a set piece or a moment of individual quality to score, with a depleted midfield making that harder still. The Di Lollo vs. Zampedri duel at centre back is the one to watch: if Di Lollo can't win his aerial contests or hold his position when the midfield screen breaks down, Boca's evening gets very difficult very quickly.

The clubs don't meet often and the only recent data point is April 7, when Boca won 2-1 in Santiago thanks to goals from Paredes and Bareiro with Díaz pulling one back late. Bareiro, who scored that night, isn't here.

Boca Juniors vs Universidad Católica article image 2
Credit: [email protected] | DepositPhotos

A full La Bombonera knowing their team needs a result and can't replace the players who are missing creates a different kind of pressure for visitors than a routine group stage night and Boca will need every decibel of it. Wilmar Roldán takes charge, with Zampedri's aerial threat giving the home defence plenty to worry about from set pieces.

Boca Juniors 1-2 Universidad Católica. Their injury list is too long to overcome a side that already has what they needed from this group and can rotate without losing quality and Católica win this without needing to do anything dramatic, leaving Boca headed for the Copa Sudamericana.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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