Argentina arrive at the Round of 32 as defending champions chasing back to back titles, while Cabo Verde are here to prove they belong. The game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on 3 July is straight knockout football: win and advance, lose and go home.
Argentina topped Group J with three wins, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0 and Jordan 3-1. Cabo Verde finished second in Group H behind Spain on three draws, keeping clean sheets in two of them and holding both Spain and Uruguay without losing, which was already a story worth telling.
Lionel Scaloni has been in charge since 2018 and has collected a World Cup and multiple Copa Americas, so there is not much left to prove about his credentials. Bubista took over Cabo Verde in January 2020 after a long playing career as a centre back and built a side that plays with structure and discipline. They have never faced each other, which tells us little beyond the obvious: Scaloni has been tested against a wider range of opposition, while Bubista has assembled one of the tournament's more stubborn defensive units.
Argentina won all three group games, kept clean sheets in two of them and had Messi involved throughout. Cabo Verde went unbeaten too, though their approach was different: sit deep, stay organised and make life difficult for better teams, which it did against Spain and Uruguay.
Argentina expect Romero back from the knee knock he picked up against Austria, likely partnering Otamendi or Li Martinez in central defence with Emiliano Martinez in goal. Scaloni will probably go 4 3 3 or 4 2 3 1 with De Paul, Enzo Fernandez and Mac Allister in midfield, Messi at the centre of everything and either Lautaro Martinez or Julian Alvarez leading the line. Cabo Verde report no significant injuries and will rely heavily on Vozinha in goal, with their compact 4 4 2 or 5 4 1 built around defensive organisation and Garry Rodrigues leading the breaks when they come.
Argentina want the ball and press when they lose it, while Cabo Verde will sit into a low to mid block and stay compact, looking to hurt Argentina through Rodrigues on the transition. Whether Cabo Verde's midfield can slow Messi down long enough to keep it close and whether Rodrigues can make Argentina's defence think twice on the counter are the two things worth watching, because Argentina will create chances, that much is not in doubt. Romero and Otamendi will need to track Rodrigues's runs in behind rather than ball watch in the Argentine press.
Messi and Mac Allister deliver set pieces with Romero and Otamendi attacking the back post and Cabo Verde were not troubled from set pieces during the group stage, though the delivery quality here is a step up. The Miami heat could affect the pace of the second half, which might suit Cabo Verde if the game is still tight late on, though Argentina have the depth to rotate comfortably if it goes to extra time in a way Cabo Verde do not.
Argentina 2-1 Cabo Verde. Timing and volume are the real uncertainties: Argentina will get chances but Cabo Verde's defensive setup kept Spain and Uruguay off the scoresheet in the group stage and this will not be as comfortable as the quality gap implies. Messi will find pockets between Cabo Verde's lines but converting those against a defensive shape that has already frustrated Spain and Uruguay is another matter. Cabo Verde scoring from a set piece or a counter when Argentina push men forward is the likeliest route to a 2-1.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
