South Africa and Korea Republic meet on 25 June at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey with everything still to play for in Group A and this is about as close to a knockout game as the group stage gets. Mexico has already secured top spot but the second qualification slot is wide open. Korea Republic go in with three points from two games and need only a draw to guarantee progression, whereas South Africa sit on one point with an inferior goal difference and need a win, then hope the other result goes their way. The two sides have never met before, so there is no history to lean on in either direction.
Hugo Broos and Hong Myung-bo have never faced each other in competitive or friendly football, so there are no tactical blueprints to draw from. Broos guided South Africa to third at the 2023 AFCON and has built a side around defensive structure and set piece threat, whereas Hong is back for a second stint with Korea, leaning heavily on European based players and a system designed to sit deep and break with pace. South Africa have taken one point from two games without scoring from open play, which tells you most of what you need to know about their ceiling in this tournament and a 1-0 pre tournament win over Jamaica and a scoreless draw with Nicaragua confirmed the same pattern: hard to break down but rarely capable of creating enough to feel comfortable. Korea have been more convincing: a 0-1 loss to Mexico was respectable and their 2-1 win over the Czech Republic showed the ability to manufacture and convert chances under pressure. The 5-0 friendly win over Trinidad and Tobago was flattering company but the Czech Republic win gave you a cleaner picture of what their European based attackers can do when it matters.
South Africa's biggest problem going into this game is the suspension of Teboho Mokoena, who has been their anchor in midfield. Losing him against a side with Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in is not ideal and none of the options available to fill his role, whether Thalente Mbatha, Sphephelo Sithole, or Jayden Adams, offer the same defensive screening or passing range. Up front, Foster, Appollis and Mofokeng will need to find something they have not consistently produced in this tournament. Korea have no such concerns, with Hwang In-beom and Cho Yu-min both fit after carrying minor knocks earlier in the campaign, giving Hong a full strength side and Son Heung-min captaining a front line that also includes Hwang Hee-chan and Lee Kang-in.
Broos will almost certainly set up in a compact 5-3-2 looking to deny Korea space in behind and stay in the game long enough to threaten from set pieces. South Africa have proven hard to break down under his management but without Mokoena the remaining midfielders will need to be disciplined to compensate, pressing higher to prevent Korea from building through the middle. The risk is that they sit too deep and give Korea's attackers time to settle into rhythm in and around the South Africa penalty area.
Hong's 3-4-2-1 pushes the wing backs high and wide enough to drag South Africa's defensive shape out of position, creating lanes for Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in to combine behind the first line of pressure. Kim Min-jae anchors the back three and his aerial dominance removes the set piece threat Broos has built around. Without Mokoena screening in front of the back line, Hwang In-beom and Paik Seung-ho should have little difficulty controlling the middle third.
South Africa's most realistic route to goal runs through set pieces and Broos will have drilled that element of the game thoroughly. Korea's defensive organisation at dead balls is solid enough that South Africa are unlikely to manufacture more than one or two genuine chances and Son's pace in behind a high South Africa line means Broos cannot afford to commit too many bodies forward if they fall behind.
Korea Republic 2-1 South Africa. Having not scored from open play in two games, South Africa are unlikely to find the two goals they need. Son Heung-min pulling wide and running in behind the wing backs is the clearest danger Broos will need to account for and while his two banks of five may limit Korea to half chances for stretches, it will not be enough to take the points. Korea progress, South Africa go home.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
