The final Group F fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup pits an already eliminated Tunisia against a Netherlands side on four points that needs a strong result to secure first place and advance to the round of 32. Tunisia go into the match on June 25 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City with zero points and a goal difference of minus eight after heavy opening losses, while the Dutch have collected four points from a 2-2 draw with Japan and a 5-1 win over Sweden. Ronald Koeman will have to balance finishing top of the group with managing squad freshness ahead of the knockouts.
Koeman and Herve Renard have no meaningful prior record against each other. Koeman has been in charge of the Netherlands since January 2023 in his second stint, working with assistants Erwin Koeman, Wim Jonk and Ruud van Nistelrooy. Renard was only appointed on June 16, days after Sabri Lamouchi was dismissed following Tunisia's 5-1 defeat to Sweden, he brings experience of managing several African nations but had just days to prepare a side that had already conceded nine goals in two matches.
Tunisia's tournament campaign has fallen apart despite an unbeaten qualifying run in which they conceded nothing. A 5-1 defeat to Sweden followed by a 4-0 loss to Japan exposed serious defensive fragility at the highest level and triggered the coaching change, whereas the Netherlands have looked sharp going forward with seven goals across two matches, even if a win over Uzbekistan and a loss to Algeria in friendlies beforehand suggested some inconsistency going into the tournament.
No major injuries or suspensions have been confirmed for either side. There are minor concerns around Netherlands striker Brian Brobbey and Memphis Depay's recovery from a thigh issue, which could open the door for rotation and bring Crysencio Summerville into the picture. Tunisia's squad is largely unchanged from the Lamouchi era despite the switch to Renard and the speed of the coaching change itself signals the federation knew the squad's confidence was shot after conceding nine goals in two matches.
Expected lineups point to a 4-3-3 for both teams, with Tunisia likely starting Aymen Dahmen in goal behind a back four of Yan Valery, Dylan Bronn, Montassar Talbi or Omar Rekik and Ali Abdi. The Netherlands should line up with Bart Verbruggen behind Denzel Dumfries, Virgil van Dijk, Jan Paul van Hecke or Micky van de Ven and Nathan Ake, with Frenkie de Jong anchoring midfield.
Koeman's Netherlands favour a possession oriented attacking approach, with de Jong, Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders driving through the middle and Gakpo and Malen running in behind on the break. Tunisia under Renard will likely defend deep given the circumstances, with Ellyes Skhiri anchoring in front of the back four and Hannibal Mejbri given licence to carry the ball when space opens.
The central battle between Gakpo and Malen against Talbi, Bronn and Rekik is the decisive matchup of this game and with Tunisia having conceded nine goals in two matches the Dutch forwards will fancy their chances. The midfield duel between de Jong and Gravenberch on one side and Skhiri and Mejbri on the other is where the shape of the contest will be decided.
The sides have met rarely, mostly in friendlies and have never faced each other at a World Cup, with the Netherlands holding the edge through one win and two draws from three meetings, including a 4-0 victory in 1978.
The Dutch target Van Dijk at corners and have the delivery from Dumfries' wide position to make life uncomfortable for a defence that has already been overrun twice. Rotation and fitness management add real complexity for the Netherlands, since they want to secure a favourable knockout draw without burning players they will need almost immediately.
Netherlands 2-1 Tunisia. Gakpo or Malen are the likeliest scorers and Mejbri's ability to carry the ball makes him the most plausible route to a Tunisian goal if one comes. If the Dutch deliver on what their form in this tournament suggests they are capable of, they advance as group winners, likely meeting the runner up of Group E in the round of 32.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
