Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction: World Cup 2026 Group D Showdown

Turkey and Paraguay meet at Levi's Stadium on 20 June 2026 in what amounts to a must win game for both sides after opening match defeats left them staring down early elimination in Group D. The co hosts USA sit top after a 4-1 win over Paraguay, while Australia are second following a 2-0 result against Turkey, meaning both sides need three points here to stay alive, whether by finishing in the top two or sneaking through as one of the better third placed teams.

Vincenzo Montella has been in charge of Turkey since September 2023 and built an attacking side around young talent, while Gustavo Alfaro took over Paraguay in August 2024 and rebuilt them on defensive solidity and pressing intensity, which proved enough to end their 16 year absence from the tournament. The two managers have never faced each other before.

Turkey returned to the World Cup for the first time in 24 years but the 2-0 defeat to Australia in the opener was a poor way to begin. Paraguay's 16 year wait ended just as badly, with a 1-4 loss to the United States exposing how fragile they can be against high tempo pressing sides.

Turkey expect Arda Guler to shake off a hamstring scare and start alongside Kenan Yildiz, with Ferdi Kadioglu in his usual hybrid role and Hakan Calhanoglu captaining the side from midfield. Ugurcan Cakir starts in goal, with Merih Demiral and Caglar Soyuncu at the back. The big concern on the Paraguay side is Julio Enciso, stretchered off in a pre tournament friendly and still a major doubt, leaving Miguel Almiron and Antonio Sanabria as Paraguay's only genuine attack minded starters. Gustavo Gomez and Fabian Balbuena, the two centre backs Alfaro has trusted throughout qualifying, will need to deal with Guler and Yildiz dropping into pockets between the lines.

Montella's Turkey look to build centrally through Calhanoglu and then release Guler or Yildiz into space, with Kadioglu providing an extra runner on the left. Both Guler and Yildiz tend to drop short to receive and then turn quickly, drifting inside to combine rather than staying wide, which is what makes them so difficult to pick up in a flat back four. Alfaro sets Paraguay up in a compact 4-4-2 designed to sit deep and absorb pressure before playing quickly into Sanabria, who acts as the focal point bringing others into play and winning fouls in the final third. The central battle between Guler, Yildiz and Paraguay's two centre backs should decide the match, with Almiron's energy against Kadioglu's forward runs a secondary thread worth watching.

These sides have met only once, a 0-0 friendly in Paraguay in June 1995. Turkey's set pieces often run through Guler's delivery and Calhanoglu's range from distance, while Paraguay will look to Gomez in the air at both ends. Paraguay will almost certainly sit in a low block from the first whistle, so the question is whether Turkey have the patience to move them before going more direct. Enciso's absence removes the one player in Paraguay's squad capable of running in behind at pace, which was their most likely way of scoring against a Turkey side that pushes its full backs high.

Turkey 2-0 Paraguay. Turkey's ability to unlock defences through Guler's movement and Yildiz's directness gives them a clear advantage over a Paraguay side that struggled to create chances even before losing Enciso. Turkey will likely spend long periods in Paraguay's half and Guler dropping between the lines and Yildiz cutting in from the left are the most likely routes to a breakthrough. With Enciso absent, Paraguay have no natural runner in behind, meaning Almiron will need to cover huge distances to create any kind of transition threat. A clean sheet and two goals looks the most likely outcome, a result that would take Turkey to three points and likely into a deciding final group game against the USA.