New Zealand and Belgium meet in a Group G decider at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 27 June at BC Place in Vancouver and the stakes are about as clean as they get. Belgium, ranked around 9th in the world on roughly 1,735 FIFA points, need a win to guarantee advancement and likely seal top spot, whereas New Zealand, sitting in the mid 80s as the tournament's lowest-ranked side, could reach the knockout phase for the first time since 2010. A draw would be the biggest result in their World Cup history in 16 years, a win would be one of the all time shocks of this competition.
Bazeley and Rudi Garcia have never met as managers in competitive football, with Garcia only taking over Belgium in January 2025 and yet to face a New Zealand side that has quietly shifted under Bazeley's watch.
New Zealand drew 2-2 with Iran and lost 1-3 to Egypt in their opening two group games, which is a better return than it sounds given the company they're keeping. A narrow 0-1 friendly loss to England earlier in the year added to that picture. Belgium, meanwhile, have managed 1-1 with Egypt and 0-0 against Iran and both results felt like missed opportunities. They've had the ball and they've had the chances but haven't taken them and at a World Cup that pattern has to break eventually.
New Zealand have no major injury concerns and will name a full squad. Chris Wood captains the side and leads his nation's scoring charts, while Elijah Just has been sharp in front of goal during the tournament, registering the kind of movement in the box that better known strikers get far more credit for. Belgium welcome back Jeremy Doku after missing time following the birth of his child, though Nathan Ngoy serves a suspension after his red card against Iran, with Arthur Theate coming in to start. Thibaut Courtois is in goal and both Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku are being monitored for fitness, which is the last thing Garcia needs going into this match.
New Zealand set up in a compact defensive block and Belgium have struggled all tournament to break down organised defences and convert the chances they create, two group games suggest they can manage the former but struggle badly with the latter. The midfield duel between De Bruyne and Tielemans against Stamenic and Bell should determine whether Belgium can pin New Zealand back for long enough to create openings. Doku, who tends to drive directly at defenders and Trossard, who cuts inside from the left, will look to get between the lines when New Zealand's shape compresses centrally. Wood against Mechele at set pieces is the clearest mismatch New Zealand can target and with Belgium needing to push forward, the channel behind their defensive line becomes increasingly available as the game opens up.
The two sides have met just once before, a 0-0 friendly in Brussels in October 2020, which offers almost no useful competitive reference point.
Belgium's set piece vulnerability and New Zealand's ability to exploit transitions through Wood and Just make this contest less straightforward than the rankings suggest. Two flat, largely goalless displays from Garcia's side mean they arrive here under real scrutiny. A De Bruyne free kick or a Lukaku hold-up leading to a second ball looks like the most plausible route to Belgium's opener but if they are stretched going forward, Wood at a corner against Mechele or Theate is New Zealand's most specific route to goal.
Prediction: Belgium 2-1 New Zealand.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
