Brazil take on Japan in the FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 32 at NRG Stadium in Houston on 29 June, with a place in the last 16 on the line. Brazil come in as five time champions and heavy favourites. Japan arrive having eliminated Germany and Spain in 2022 and finished this group stage unbeaten, which says more about what Hajime Moriyasu has built than any general reputation for being difficult to beat.
Carlo Ancelotti took charge of Brazil in May 2025, becoming the Selecao's first ever foreign coach after Dorival Junior departed, bringing Paul Clement with him as assistant. In practice, Brazil build through their full backs, with Danilo and Alex Sandro pushing into the final third to overload wide areas while Paqueta sits as the creative link between midfield and attack. Moriyasu has been in charge of Japan since 2018 and favours a mid block that invites pressure before springing forward in transition. The two managers have never faced each other.
Brazil came through the group stage beating Haiti and Scotland 3-0 each while drawing 1-1 with Morocco, with Alisson barely troubled. Japan finished second in Group F behind the Netherlands on five points and a plus four goal difference, going unbeaten with a 2-2 draw against the Dutch, a 1-1 with Sweden and a 4-0 win over Tunisia, results against two sides ranked above them in FIFA's table that confirm they belong here.
Brazil have fitness concerns. Raphinha is doubtful with a thigh or hamstring problem while Rodrygo and Eder Militao are long term absentees, with Cunha or Rayan likely stepping in on the right if Raphinha misses out. Ancelotti will probably line up in a 4-3-3 with Alisson in goal, a back four of Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhaes and Alex Sandro or Douglas Santos, Casemiro and Bruno Guimaraes in central midfield alongside Paqueta and Vinicius Jr., Matheus Cunha or Rayan and Martinelli or Luiz Henrique up front.
Japan are without Kaoru Mitoma through a hamstring injury and are sweating on Takefusa Kubo and Ko Itakura. Moriyasu will likely pick a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 with Zion Suzuki in goal, Hiroki Ito and Takehiro Tomiyasu or Shogo Taniguchi in defence, Ao Tanaka and Daichi Kamada in the double pivot, Ritsu Doan and Keito Nakamura providing width and Daizen Maeda supporting Ayase Ueda up front.
Brazil's attacking shape depends on their full backs getting high, with Vinicius Jr. and Martinelli tending to isolate opponents in one on ones rather than simply running the channels. The Tokyo friendly in October 2025 showed what happens when that structure is stretched, with Japan winning 3-2 by exploiting the gaps Danilo and Alex Sandro left behind them. Moriyasu will have watched it many times since.
The flank contests shape everything here, with Vinicius Jr. against Ito and Martinelli against Tomiyasu the duels that will matter most, while Ueda and Maeda's movement against Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhaes is the other major test. Bruno Guimaraes and Casemiro against Kamada and Tanaka will determine how much of the ball Brazil actually see, since if Kamada and Tanaka screen their back four and win second balls, they can limit how often Vinicius Jr. collects possession in dangerous areas, which is precisely what Japan's mid block is designed to do.
Brazil have won around 22 of their roughly 30 meetings with Japan since the early 1990s, with their only World Cup encounter ending 4-1 in 2006. Japan's sole win is that 3-2 in Tokyo last October, a result that carries more tactical relevance than the friendly tag might suggest.
Japan scored from corners and free kicks consistently through qualifying, with Ueda a genuine aerial threat at set pieces, particularly from corners where he attacks the near post. Brazil's zonal marking has been exposed on those deliveries before. The clearest quality gap in this fixture is the difference between what Vinicius Jr. offers in one on ones and whoever Moriyasu puts on him and Ancelotti has shown during this tournament that he is willing to shift his shape mid game to protect leads. Japan have the tactical discipline to stay compact and spring forward, as the Netherlands and Sweden both found in the group stage but Brazil's ability to manufacture chances through individual quality, particularly once Vinicius Jr. has a full game at a tiring full back, is where the match is decided.
Brazil 2-1 Japan. Vinicius Jr. to score at least once, with Japan finding a goal through a set piece or counter. Brazil advance but not before Japan have made a proper contest of the second half.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
