The Round of 16 at Lincoln Financial Field on 4 July 2026 pits Paraguay against France, though the Philadelphia heat is worth factoring in before writing Paraguay off entirely. Paraguay got here by grinding through the group stage and then beating Germany on penalties in the Round of 32, a result that surprised most people, whereas France swept Group I with three comfortable wins and haven't looked troubled yet. The winner goes through to the quarter finals and Deschamps, reportedly managing France for the last time, will want to make it count.
Alfaro and Deschamps have never faced each other at senior level, not that there is much to read into that. Alfaro has tightened Paraguay's shape considerably since taking over in 2024 and Deschamps continues to run the 4-2-3-1 he's trusted for years, built around defensive discipline.
Paraguay's form makes for interesting reading. They drew 0-0 with Australia, beat Turkiye 1-0, then were hammered 4-1 by co host USA before drawing 1-1 with Germany and winning the penalty shootout 4-3. The Germany result in particular suggests they can hold a line under pressure, even if the USA game exposed how badly things can go wrong when the press is on and the gaps open up. France, meanwhile, have been more straightforward, winning all four matches by comfortable margins.
Paraguay are sweating on Omar Alderete, who has a knee problem and is doubtful, though Diego Gomez returns from suspension. Assuming Alderete misses out, Alfaro will likely line up with Orlando Gill in goal, a back four of Juan Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Jose Canale and Junior Alonso and a midfield of Matias Galarza, Andres Cubas, Damian Bobadilla and Miguel Almiron behind Julio Enciso and Gabriel Avalos.
France are monitoring Marcus Thuram, who has a calf problem and William Saliba, who has a minor back concern but is expected to play. Mike Maignan should start in goal behind a back four of Jules Kounde, Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Lucas Digne, with Aurelien Tchouameni and Adrien Rabiot sitting in front of them and Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola supporting Kylian Mbappe.
Paraguay will sit in a low block and look to win the ball and break quickly, relying heavily on goalkeeper heroics to get through tight moments. The plan against France will be to limit Mbappe's space in behind and hope Enciso and Almiron can do enough on the ball. Dembele, Olise and Barcola are all capable of creating one on one situations on the flanks, which means the real question is whether Paraguay's fullbacks can be beaten repeatedly over ninety minutes, especially if the conditions are as brutal as they can be in Philadelphia in July.
These sides haven't met in a World Cup before and past senior meetings are sparse enough that the head to head offers almost nothing useful for prediction purposes, so you're essentially flying blind on historical precedent, which suits Paraguay just fine.
Paraguay held Germany level through ninety minutes before penalties and the Philadelphia heat could genuinely help them do something similar here: France's press takes a lot of physical effort to maintain and if the conditions drain that engine, Paraguay's job gets easier, though France have the squad depth to manage it better than most teams would.
1-1. Paraguay held Germany to 1-1 through ninety minutes and their best chance of scoring runs through set pieces. They are capable of making it to extra time or penalties, though France should win it eventually, just probably not in ninety minutes.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
