France meet Sweden in the Round of 32 on 30 June at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey and it doubles as Didier Deschamps' farewell match in charge of the national team. France topped Group I with three wins and a +6 goal difference, Sweden scraped through as one of the best third placed teams, finishing with a -4 goal difference after a 5-1 win over Tunisia was followed by a 1-5 loss to the Netherlands.
Deschamps and Graham Potter have never faced each other at senior international level. Deschamps won the World Cup in 2018 and finished runner up in 2022, whereas Potter has been in the Sweden job since October 2025 - eight months, compared to eight years of finals football.
France were the dominant group stage side, scoring ten goals and conceding two across wins over Senegal (3-1), Iraq (3-0) and Norway (4-1), with Deschamps rotating freely without any visible drop in quality. Sweden's campaign is harder to read: the 5-1 against Tunisia was encouraging but the 1-5 to the Netherlands is self explanatory and a 1-1 draw with Japan before a knockout game is not exactly a confidence builder.
Sweden are without Isak Hien for the rest of the tournament after he suffered a left hamstring injury against Japan and they have no natural replacement at centre back. France report no injury concerns and Deschamps is expected to name a strong side in a 4-3-3 built around Kylian Mbappé as captain, with Michael Olise and Désiré Doué in midfield and Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak leading Sweden's attack.
France's game is built on controlling possession and exploiting transitions quickly, with Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé capable of pulling apart any full back pairing in the world. Sweden under Potter rely on set pieces and quick counters and losing Hien makes their exposure in open play worse than it already was. Without him, Sweden look more vulnerable to crosses and second balls, making set pieces their most viable route to goal. Gyökeres and Isak are the only real creative outlet Sweden have going forward and France's defensive line is well equipped to deal with runners in behind.
France have won five of the last eight meetings with Sweden since 2005, with two Sweden wins and one draw, most of them settled by a single goal. Sweden have not beaten France since 2017 and the record makes a convincing case that this is not where it starts.
The neutral venue in New Jersey offers Sweden no crowd advantage and with Hien gone, corners and direct free kicks are probably their best hope of testing France's goalkeeper. France conceded just twice in the group stage and are no less dangerous themselves at dead balls, so Sweden cannot rely on set pieces as a straightforward leveller.
France 2-1 Sweden. Mbappé and Dembélé should be decisive and if Gyökeres or Isak pulls one back late it will be from a set piece or a moment of individual quality rather than anything Sweden manufactured in open play. Deschamps is unlikely to leave the job without a win.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
