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HomeFootball PredictionsWorld CupNorway vs France Prediction: World Cup Group I Decider
Match Prediction

Norway vs France Prediction: World Cup Group I Decider

Norway and France clash in a high-stakes World Cup group finale with both teams already qualified and fighting for top spot.

Our prediction
Norway
Norway
2-1
France
France

Norway and France meet on 26 June 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Matchday 3 of Group I, both with six points and places in the knockout rounds already secured. Norway sit behind on goal difference (plus four against France's plus five) having beaten Iraq 4-1 and edged Senegal 3-2, whereas France won their two openers with similar authority. The only thing left to settle is who tops the group, which matters because first place in Group I should earn a kinder round of 32 draw.

Solbakken has managed Norway since December 2020, delivering their first World Cup appearance since 1998, whereas Deschamps has been in charge of France since 2012 but will miss this fixture for his mother's funeral, leaving assistant Guy Stephan to run the touchline. The two managers have no meaningful competitive head to head record.

Norway vs France article image 1
Credit: marco iacobucci | DepositPhotos

Norway beat Iraq 4-1 before edging Senegal 3-2 in a livelier contest, though that second result was messier than the Iraq scoreline had suggested and France will have noted it. France were equally comfortable across their two openers, rotating freely throughout.

Norway are without Julian Ryerson, who picked up an injury against Senegal, with Marcus Holmgren Pedersen expected to fill in at right back. Solbakken's starting eleven should otherwise look familiar: a 4-3-3 with Nyland in goal, Berge, Aursnes and Odegaard in midfield and Sorloth, Haaland and Nusa up front. Mbappe has been managed for a knee issue but remains available for France and Stephan is likely to keep the same 4-2-3-1 that Deschamps used in the first two games, with Maignan behind a back four of Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba or Konate and Digne or Hernandez, Tchouameni and Rabiot in midfield and Olise or Dembele, Doue and Mbappe ahead of them.

Norway lean on Haaland's movement in behind and his pull on centre backs, Odegaard's ability to pick passes under pressure and set piece delivery that has been a weapon throughout the group stage. France will operate in their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Mbappe threatening on the left and Tchouameni and Rabiot screening in central midfield. The central duel is Haaland against France's centre backs, who are capable individually but will be tested by a striker of his size and movement, while Norway's set piece delivery adds another layer of danger for those same defenders to manage. On the other side, Mbappe's pace in transition is the obvious threat for Norway's full backs, particularly Pedersen coming in for the injured Ryerson.

France lead the historical record with roughly seven wins from around fifteen meetings against four or five for Norway, the most notable recent results being a 4-0 French win in a 2014 friendly and a 2-1 Norwegian victory in 2010.

Norway vs France article image 2
Credit: DepositPhotos

Losing Deschamps on the touchline is a real variable and his absence tends to affect in game adjustments more than preparation. Norway's set piece game is exactly the kind of detail that assistants may handle slightly less sharply. Both squads are already through to the last 32, which takes the desperation out of this.

Norway 2-1 France. Haaland's ability to occupy two centre backs and win set piece balls feels like the decisive factor, particularly with Pedersen at right back rather than the injured Ryerson. If Norway's delivery from set pieces is as precise as it has been, France's centre backs are in for a difficult evening and without Deschamps on the bench to reshape the game as it moves, Norway have the edge.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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