Panama and Croatia meet in Group L on 23 June at BMO Field in Toronto, both trying to recover from opening defeats that put them on the brink of an early exit. Panama lost 1-0 to Ghana despite controlling possession for long stretches and creating the better chances, while Croatia were beaten 4-2 by England, conceding twice in the final quarter after threatening to stay in it at 2-2. The winner here goes into their England fixture needing only a draw to advance, a draw would keep both sides alive but only just.
Thomas Christiansen has managed Panama since July 2020, the longest serving coach in their recent history, with his contract running through July 2026. He organises his side in a 5-4-1 or similar shape, a defensive block that drops deep and forces teams to break it down laterally rather than through the middle. Zlatko Dalic has been in charge of Croatia since October 2017, guiding them to the 2018 final and third place in 2022 through a system built on midfield control. The two coaches have never faced each other and this is the first senior international meeting between the two nations.
Panama's qualifying campaign had genuine peaks: wins over the United States in the 2023 Gold Cup final and the 2024 Copa America quarter-finals. Their pre tournament friendlies were harder to read, ranging from a 4-2 win over Dominican Republic to a 6-2 defeat to Brazil and a 1-1 draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina and their opener against Ghana, which they lost despite dominating statistically, did not settle the picture. Croatia qualified with an unbeaten run that included convincing wins over Gibraltar, Czechia and Montenegro, though they dropped points in a draw in Prague. The England defeat was a more serious concern than the scoreline alone suggests: against a side that pressed aggressively in the second half, Croatia's midfield struggled to recycle the ball quickly enough and both goals after the interval came from Croatia being caught out of shape.
Panama are dealing with fitness uncertainty going in, with Adalberto Carrasquilla still doubtful after missing the Ghana game with an adductor issue, though Luis Mejia and Anibal Godoy have largely recovered from minor muscle problems. Christiansen is expected to line up with Orlando Mosquera in goal, a back three of Andres Andrade, Jose Cordoba and Jiovany Ramos, Cesar Blackman, Yoel Barcenas, Carlos Harvey and Amir Murillo in midfield and Jose Luis Rodriguez, Cecilio Waterman and Cristian Martinez up front. Croatia welcome Luka Modric back from cheekbone surgery, with Josko Gvardiol and Luka Vuskovic both cleared and Dalic is likely to use a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 with Modric at the base alongside Martin Baturina and Petar Sucic and Kramaric as the central focal point of the attack, his movement in and around the box and link up play in tight areas the main outlet for balls played in behind Panama's block.
Tactically, this sets up as a familiar clash of styles. Panama will do against Croatia what they did against Ghana: absorb, stay organised and look to break quickly through Waterman and Martinez. The two sides have never met at senior international level, so there is no head to head history to draw on but the structure of the contest feels predictable enough, with Panama defending deep while Croatia try to find a way through. Croatia have Modric dictating tempo from deep with Baturina and Sucic rotating around him, which gives them more ways to shift Panama's shape and draw the press. That said, when England pressed Croatia high in the second half at Wembley, the Croatian midfield was slow to adjust and both conceded goals came from Croatia being caught in transition, a vulnerability Panama can target if they time their press correctly after Croatia lose the ball in the middle third. Croatia's starting midfield averages well into its thirties and fatigue in close games is a real concern. The central duel between Modric and Panama's Godoy and Harvey matters for a concrete reason: if Panama win it consistently, Croatia's build up stalls and the counter attacking threat through Waterman becomes more credible, if Croatia dominate it, Panama are unlikely to threaten. Murillo and Blackman's positioning in the wide areas is just as consequential, with Murillo pushing forward when Croatia's full backs commit and Blackman targeting the channel behind Gvardiol.
Panama's aerial organisation makes them a real threat at set pieces and it is the most likely route to a goal if they find one. Croatia's own dead ball threat is harder to ignore now that Modric is fit and available to deliver into the box, the question is whether Baturina, Sucic or Gvardiol arriving from deep can win the header at the near post. Toronto's conditions at BMO Field may suit Panama's compact shape early on and fatigue could become a significant factor for Croatia's veterans if Panama maintain their intensity.
Croatia 2-1 Panama feels like the right call, with Modric's ability to slow the game down and Croatia's greater capacity to manage a tight second half the deciding factor. The one goal margin reflects how well Christiansen has set this side up and there is a real scenario where Waterman gets in behind a stretched Croatian defence with their midfield legs fading in the final twenty minutes and makes this genuinely uncomfortable right until the end.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
