Portugal take on Uzbekistan at NRG Stadium in Houston on 23 June 2026. The 1-1 draw with DR Congo left a sour taste, with high possession that never translated into clear cut chances and a Ronaldo who looked every bit like a player desperate to prove a point. Uzbekistan arrive in worse shape having lost 1-3 to Colombia on matchday one, sitting bottom of the group with a negative goal difference and zero points. Models give Portugal around 78% probability of winning, which feels about right. Win here and Martinez's side goes through regardless of the Colombia v DR Congo result, drop points and a straightforward group becomes genuinely complicated.
Roberto Martinez has been in charge of Portugal since 2023, guided them to Nations League glory and has already announced he will step down once the 2026 tournament ends, making this his farewell lap. His staff includes Ricardo Carvalho and Austin MacPhee and the system Martinez runs is possession oriented with a high press and quick transitions. On the other bench sits Fabio Cannavaro, appointed by Uzbekistan in October 2025 for what is his first World Cup as a manager. The former Italy captain beat Portugal in all three encounters during his playing days and scored in a 2008 friendly in the process, assisted now by his brother Paolo Cannavaro and Francesco Troise.
Portugal's warm-up wasn't exactly alarming but it wasn't convincing either. They beat Nigeria and Chile 2-1 in friendlies, then came the DR Congo draw, which raised the first real questions. Uzbekistan's preparation was rougher, having lost 0-2 to Canada and 1-2 to the Netherlands before the 1-3 Colombia defeat. Worth noting, though, is that they generated 1.16 expected goals against Colombia, which is not nothing and suggests there is at least some attacking threat to account for.
Portugal are essentially at full strength, with defender Tomas Araujo the only notable absentee through injury. Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Vitinha, Joao Neves, Rafael Leao, Pedro Neto, Ruben Dias, Nuno Mendes and Diogo Costa are all available. Uzbekistan are also close to full strength, missing only Rustamjon Ashurmatov, with their side built around captain Eldor Shomurodov, Manchester City centre back Abdukodir Khusanov, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Igor Sergeev and Oston Urunov.
Portugal should line up in a fluid 4-3-3: Costa in goal behind Cancelo, Dias, Inacio and Mendes, Neves, Fernandes and either Silva or Vitinha in midfield, Neto, Ronaldo and Leao up front. Uzbekistan will likely sit in a compact 4-4-2 with Yusupov in goal and Khusanov anchoring the defence, looking to spring Shomurodov on the break.
The problem against DR Congo was that Portugal moved the ball around without ever actually threatening the goal. Mendes and Cancelo pushed high and delivered crosses but found little to aim at in the box and the midfield combinations looked sharp enough until they reached the final third, where everything stalled. Uzbekistan will try to replicate that by sitting off Portugal, with Khusanov providing the defensive anchor that makes the structure work. The duel most worth watching is Bruno Fernandes against the compact Uzbek midfield of Shukurov and Khamrobekov. The real question is whether Fernandes can receive between their midfield and defensive lines or whether Uzbekistan's shape denies him that space, if he gets crowded out, it could be another frustrating evening. If Cancelo and Mendes get in behind their wide shape and pull the ball back from the byline, that is where Portugal are likeliest to cause real damage.
These two nations have never met at senior level, so the relevant context is Portugal's record against AFC opposition at World Cups: a 1-1 with Iran in 2018 and a 2-1 defeat to South Korea in 2022, which is worth bearing in mind. Uzbekistan, for their part, have won just one of 23 matches against UEFA opposition.
Cannavaro has put a lot of emphasis on dead ball situations, which is probably Uzbekistan's most realistic route to something unexpected. Portugal, meanwhile, have Dias and Ronaldo, both dangerous in the air and should be looking to make corners and free kicks count after the high possession, low chance performance against DR Congo. NRG Stadium runs hot and humid in June and those conditions have a way of dragging technically superior sides into a more physical contest than they would choose, which is another small variable worth keeping in mind.
Portugal to win 2-1. They have the quality to unpick a low block even if the DR Congo game didn't show it and an early goal would test Uzbekistan's structure in ways Cannavaro would rather avoid given his squad's limited depth for tactical adjustment mid-game. A late Uzbekistan goal feels entirely plausible given the counter attack threat, which is why 2-1 makes more sense than a clean sheet. Portugal win and Ronaldo gets his goal but Cannavaro's side will have made them work for it.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
