Spain meet Austria on 2 July at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood with kick off at 21:00 CEST, a straight knockout where the winner advances to the round of 16 and the loser goes home. Spain topped Group H after a goalless draw against Cape Verde, a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia and a 1-0 win over Uruguay, whereas Austria scraped through on a 93rd minute equaliser against Algeria, having beaten Jordan 3-1 but been hammered 2-0 by Argentina. Spain are heavy favourites and rightly so, carrying two major trophies in three years (Euro 2024 and the 2023 UEFA Nations League) that Austria simply cannot match.
Luis de la Fuente took over in December 2022 and has since delivered two major trophies in less than three years playing possession football built on intelligent pressing and positional movement, with his contract running through Euro 2028. Ralf Rangnick has been in charge of Austria since 2022, also contracted until 2028, with methods well documented from his RB Leipzig years: compact shape, intense pressing, rapid transitions. The two haven't faced each other as international managers, which makes this something of a tactical unknown.
Spain's group campaign pulled in three directions: a stalemate against Cape Verde, a 4-0 dismantling of Saudi Arabia with Lamine Yamal scoring and assisting and a controlled if unspectacular 1-0 win over Uruguay. Austria's form is harder to read: beating Jordan 3-1 is fine, losing 2-0 to Argentina is understandable given the opposition but nearly going out before a 93rd minute equaliser against Algeria is the kind of thing that should concern them heading into this. Spain's midfield will press higher and with more collective purpose than anything Austria have faced in this tournament and the structural question is whether Rangnick's shape can absorb that for ninety minutes.
Spain's main personnel uncertainty is Nico Williams, recovering from injury and unlikely to start, with Alex Baena carrying a minor knock too, while Austria have doubts over David Alaba and Marko Arnautovic, both veterans whose distribution from deep and hold up play they will need. Neither side carries suspension worries. Spain are expected to line up in a 4-3-3: Unai Simon, Porro or Llorente, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella, Rodri, Pedri, Merino or Fabian, Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena or Williams. Austria will likely go 4-2-3-1: Schlager or Pentz, Posch, Lienhart or Danso, Alaba, Mwene, Seiwald, X. Schlager, Laimer or Wimmer, Sabitzer, Schmid, Arnautovic.
Spain's system has evolved well beyond the tiki taka label but the core idea remains: control the ball, press high when you lose it and stretch the opposition across the full width of what is a notably wide pitch at SoFi. Rodri sits and protects, which gives Pedri the freedom to roam into the half spaces and Yamal on the right is the most dangerous player on the pitch - Austria's left back will need help and probably a second defender alongside him whenever Yamal cuts inside. How Pedri handles the physical press of Laimer and Sabitzer will likely determine whether Spain build their control comfortably or are forced into something scrappier.
Austria's plan will be familiar to anyone who has watched Rangnick's teams: defend compactly and press in waves. Arnautovic is their target man and gives Cubarsi and Laporte something to deal with aerially and Sabitzer picks up second balls and drives forward, though Austria have shown they can tire in the final quarter given how close they came to elimination against Algeria and Spain tend to find an extra gear when space opens up late.
Spain have won nine of their roughly sixteen meetings with Austria, with the Austrians taking four and three ending level, with recent encounters being one sided - 5-1 and 4-0 results in qualifiers and friendlies since 2000 - and the only World Cup meeting going Austria's way, 2-1 in 1978.
Austria's most realistic route back into this game is through dead balls, with Alaba and Arnautovic both threatening from deliveries into the box. SoFi Stadium's wide pitch suits Spain's game well, giving Yamal and the wide forwards more room to operate.
Rodri shields the back four and lets Pedri and Merino operate higher and Spain have enough in midfield to dictate the tempo even if Williams doesn't start, which means Austria's backline is unlikely to hold a full game against Yamal and Pedri with space to work in. A set piece or counter attack goal is the most likely route if Austria do score and given that they equalised in the 93rd minute against Algeria, they will push late regardless of what the scoreboard says. Spain 2-1 Austria.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
