Germany and Paraguay meet in the World Cup 2026 Round of 32 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 29 June, with the loser going home immediately. Germany came through Group E in first place having beaten Curaçao 7-1 and Côte d'Ivoire 2-1, before losing narrowly to Ecuador, while Paraguay squeezed through as one of the best third placed sides in Group D on the back of a 1-0 win over Turkey and a goalless draw with Australia, confirming Germany as strong favourites and four time champions going into the knockout stage.
Julian Nagelsmann has been in charge of Germany since September 2023 with his contract running through UEFA Euro 2028. He favours high pressing gegenpressing with a fluid 4-2-3-1, pushing his full backs into wide overloads and relying on Kimmich's deep lying role to orchestrate the press from the base of midfield. Gustavo Alfaro has been in charge of Paraguay since August 2024, getting them through qualification with defensively minded setups ranging from a 4-2-3-1 to a five man defensive block. The two coaches have not met in a senior international fixture before and the central tactical question going into Sunday is how deep Alfaro sets that block when Germany press from the front.
The 7-1 thrashing of Curaçao and the 2-1 win over Côte d'Ivoire showed Germany can create and convert chances at volume, though the 1-2 defeat to Ecuador showed they can be caught out at the back. Paraguay were lower scoring but effective, with Cubas and Galarza operating as midfield screens in front of a 5-3-2 block that sat narrow and deep, forcing opposition wide before pressing at the ball. Their aerial presence at set pieces gave them an additional threat in the group stage, one they will need to reproduce here.
Germany are without Nico Schlotterbeck, who has an ankle ligament injury ending his tournament, whereas Nathaniel Brown is doubtful with a muscle problem but expected to start after missing only the final group game, with Manuel Neuer, Antonio Rüdiger and captain Joshua Kimmich all set to play. Nagelsmann's predicted 4-2-3-1 has Neuer in goal behind a back four of Kimmich, Rüdiger, Tah and Brown, with Nmecha and Pavlović in midfield and Sané, Musiala and Wirtz supporting Havertz up front. Paraguay are without the suspended Diego Gómez and Omar Alderete is doubtful with a knee problem, though Miguel Almirón returns after serving a prior suspension. Their shape is likely to alternate between a 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1, with Gill in goal, Cáceres anchoring the defence alongside Alderete or Velázquez, Cubas and Galarza as midfield screens and Enciso and Ávalos as the main attacking outlets.
Germany average around 67% possession and press high to win the ball back early, with their full backs pushing into wide overloads and Wirtz dropping between the lines while Musiala drifts wide, the two combining to disorganise defensive structures in tight spaces. Paraguay will sit deep, with Cubas and Galarza screening central areas before looking to release Enciso in transition. Rüdiger and Tah will need to stay sharp when Enciso picks up the ball with space ahead of him and set pieces remain the area where Paraguay can most plausibly ask questions of Germany's high defensive line.
Germany beat Paraguay 1-0 in the 2002 World Cup Round of 16, Oliver Neuville scoring the only goal and the overall record is comfortably in Germany's favour. That set piece threat is worth taking seriously: Paraguay's delivery and movement in the box were consistent sources of danger in the group stage, with aerial duels won in dangerous areas producing chances their open play rarely created. Germany defend with a high line that late runners can stretch and if Alfaro sends his central defenders forward at corners, there is a plausible route to goal. The single elimination format means a slow start is not an option for either side and Paraguay conceding early would make the rest of the night almost impossible to manage.
Germany 2-1 Paraguay. Germany's press should create enough openings in the second half as legs tire and Paraguay are forced to commit forward but a Paraguay goal from a dead ball situation in the first hour is a realistic scenario. Germany win, even if Paraguay make it uncomfortable from a set piece.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
