Iran and New Zealand open Group G at SoFi Stadium, with Belgium and Egypt meeting in the other fixture, meaning a bad day one could close off the group before it has properly started. New Zealand, still without a win at a World Cup finals, need to change that record here.
There is no meaningful head to head between Amir Ghalenoei and Darren Bazeley, though Bazeley's CV is unusual enough to warrant a mention: he becomes the first coach to lead national teams at the U 17 World Cup, the U 20 World Cup, the Olympics and now the senior tournament. Ghalenoei builds from the other direction, relying on an experienced squad and a conservative defensive shape.
Wins over Mali, Gambia and Costa Rica, with both Taremi and Jahanbakhsh on the scoresheet, were followed by a narrow loss to Nigeria that showed Iran can stay in matches against stronger opposition. New Zealand's preparation was rougher: heavy defeats to Haiti and England showed how little margin they have when Wood isn't functioning as an outlet. Iran barely dropped a point in Asian qualifying, New Zealand came through Oceania and a playoff. The paths alone describe the distance between them.
Both squads travel with 26 players, though Sardar Azmoun missed the Iranian squad entirely, leaving Taremi without a natural second striker to rotate with. New Zealand captain Chris Wood returns from his knee injury and is expected to start, with no suspensions affecting either side.
Iran are built to be difficult to play against, with Saeid Ezatolahi and Rouzbeh Cheshmi anchoring the midfield and dictating the tempo while Jahanbakhsh and Ghoddos operate as the outlets when Iran win the ball back. Their 4-2-3-1 is organised around set piece delivery and winning aerial duels, which suits them well against a New Zealand side that cannot match them in the air. New Zealand, probably in a matching 4-2-3-1 or compact 4-3-3, will aim to stay narrow and funnel everything through Wood when they break. The aerial duel between Taremi and the Boxall and Surman partnership is the most important individual matchup, with Wood against Kanaanizadegan and Khalilzadeh on the other end and Ezatolahi tasked with stopping Stamenic and Bell from finding any rhythm in transition.
The two sides have met only twice, both friendlies: Iran won 3-0 in 2003 and the teams drew 0-0 in 1973. Neither tells you much about what happens here, though both results are consistent with Iran's historical superiority.
Set pieces are Iran's most direct route to goals given their height and dead ball organisation and New Zealand will look to exploit the same situations through Wood and Boxall, with Cesar Arturo Ramos from Mexico taking charge at SoFi Stadium. Iran will likely dominate the ball and the more they push forward, the more they expose themselves to Wood on the break, which may be New Zealand's only real plan.
Iran 2-1 New Zealand. Taremi carries the Iranian attack alone with Azmoun absent, though Jahanbakhsh and Ghoddos as the outlets give Iran enough variety to work through New Zealand's shape. New Zealand have enough to nick a goal but not enough to hold on for a result.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
