Spain and Belgium haven't met at a World Cup since 1990, so the quarterfinal at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on 10 July carries some history on top of the obvious semifinal place at stake. Spain topped Group H without conceding a goal and have kept that clean sheet run going through two knockout rounds, Belgium won Group G on an unbeaten run of 18 matches and then dismantled the United States 4-1 in the round of 16. Spain go in as slight favourites and reasonably so.
Luis de la Fuente and Rudi Garcia haven't faced each other at this level before. De la Fuente has built a settled, possession oriented setup that refuses to cede midfield even when out of possession, while Garcia sets Belgium up to absorb pressure and release De Bruyne into the spaces that open up when opponents commit forward, rotating his squad liberally to manage fatigue across the tournament.
Spain arrive having won four and drawn one of their last five, including a 1-0 win over Portugal sealed by Merino's late header, a 3-0 win over Austria in the round of 32 and a 4-0 group stage thrashing of Saudi Arabia, with eight or nine goals scored across their World Cup matches and none conceded. Belgium's last five produced three wins and two draws: a 4-1 demolition of the United States in which De Ketelaere scored twice and added an assist, a 3-2 extra time win over Senegal and a 5-1 group win over New Zealand, with 13 goals scored and five conceded - brilliant going forward, occasionally sloppy at the back.
Spain have no major injuries or suspensions and Nico Williams is expected to shake off a minor knock, though Yeremy Pino's fitness is still being monitored. Victor Muñoz has recovered but is unlikely to start, with Ferran Torres and Mikel Merino adding depth from the bench. Belgium are without Amadou Onana, who is out for the tournament with an ACL tear. De Bruyne returns after being rested against the United States, which changes Belgium's ceiling considerably, while Zeno Debast is carrying a leg concern and Lukaku is pushing for a starting berth after his substitute appearances.
Spain are expected to line up in a 4-3-3: Simón in goal behind Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte and Cucurella, with Rodri anchoring midfield alongside Pedri and Dani Olmo and Yamal, Oyarzabal and Álex Baena ahead. Belgium are projected to use a 4-2-3-1 with Courtois, Castagne, Mechele, Ngoy and De Cuyper at the back, Vanaken and Tielemans as the double pivot and Doku, De Bruyne and Trossard supporting De Ketelaere or Lukaku.
Spain control games through possession and the midfield axis of Rodri and Pedri, which circulates the ball quickly enough to pin opponents back and free the wide players. De Bruyne can punish a high line with a single pass and Doku's pace on the left is the specific threat to watch against Spain's full backs but without Onana behind him the question is how much freedom De Bruyne actually gets. Tielemans and Vanaken can circulate the ball but neither breaks lines or wins physical duels the way Onana did and Spain's midfield should win more second balls as a result keeping De Bruyne pinned deeper than he would like. The other battle worth watching is Yamal against Belgium's right back area: if Spain find him early, they can force Belgium's midfield to track back and reduce the pockets of space De Bruyne looks to receive in.
Spain have won around 12 of 22 meetings, with five draws and five losses, the last of them a 2-0 Spanish win in a 2016 friendly. The record at World Cups tells a more even story: a 1-1 draw after extra time in the 1986 quarterfinal that Belgium won on penalties and a 2-1 Spain win in the 1990 group stage.
Set pieces could matter here and Belgium's delivery into the box with Lukaku or De Ketelaere as targets is the most direct route to scoring against a Spain side that has defended open play without conceding a single goal. Whether Debast and Williams both start is the main selection uncertainty for each side.
2-2. Spain's defensive structure and midfield control mean Belgium will spend most of the match defending their own half and waiting for the moments Spain's shape opens up and wide combinations involving Yamal and Oyarzabal are where both of Spain's goals are most likely to come from. Belgium's attack, with De Bruyne back and De Ketelaere in form, is good enough to expose the space behind Porro and Cucurella when they push into Belgium's half. Neither side looks likely to put this beyond reach inside 90 minutes and given that the 1986 quarterfinal between these two ended exactly the same way, there is some precedent for it.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
