The final Group D match on 26 June 2026 at Levi's Stadium is essentially a playoff for second place. The United States has already claimed top spot and with Turkey eliminated, Paraguay and Australia meet level on three points. Australia advance with a draw thanks to a better goal difference, while Paraguay need a win and then likely some help from elsewhere to survive as one of the best third placed teams.
Gustavo Alfaro and Tony Popovic have no history against each other, both having taken charge in 2024. Alfaro rebuilt Paraguay into a compact, defensively minded unit that earned their World Cup place through a disciplined qualifying campaign, while Popovic brought a more structured approach to the Socceroos after replacing Graham Arnold, drilling the side on midfield discipline.
Paraguay arrive with five wins from their last seven, which sounds solid until you remember they were thrashed by the United States before grinding out a 1-0 win over Turkey with ten men, saying more about how they held their shape than anything they created going forward. Australia won three of their last six, beating Turkey 2-0 and losing by the same scoreline to the United States, leaving them just ahead of Paraguay on goal difference.
Paraguay's biggest problem going into this match is Almirón's absence, the attacker suspended after his straight red card against Turkey, narrowing their creative options considerably. Diego Gómez is expected to be fit and Julio Enciso has shaken off a pre tournament thigh issue but without Almirón they are a noticeably different side in possession. Australia face doubt over Mathew Leckie, who picked up a muscle injury against the United States and could be replaced by Cristian Volpato, while a cluster of Socceroos including Souttar, Circati and Italiano carry yellow cards that could matter if they advance.
Without Almirón, Enciso carries a bigger creative burden and Matías Galarza has more ground to cover in midfield. Popovic tends to go with a back three or back five, prioritising control in the middle of the pitch, with wing backs and forwards like Mohamed Touré given licence to threaten from set pieces. The battle between Enciso's movement and Harry Souttar's ability to win headers will probably decide more of this game than any tactical setup, with Galarza and Aiden O'Neill scrapping for midfield rhythm underneath.
Australia edged a friendly 1-0 in 2010 and the sides drew in 2006 but there isn't much history to read into and what exists doesn't tell you a lot about what happens when both nations genuinely need a result.
Paraguay have gone unbeaten in their last six final group stage matches, though Australia's more pressing concern is avoiding the kind of defensive sloppiness that handed the United States their two goals.
Australia win this 2-1. The Socceroos can afford to sit a little deeper knowing a draw is enough and Paraguay's need to push forward will leave gaps in behind for Australia's forwards to run into. Without Almirón, their attack lacks the cutting edge to unpick a well organised Australian defence and Australia's delivery from dead balls is likely to be one of their clearest ways through if Paraguay sit deep and hold their shape. Paraguay will probably find one but not enough.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
