Senegal face Iraq at Toronto Stadium on 26 June in a World Cup 2026 Group I decider with completely different things on the line. Senegal sit at the bottom of the third placed mini table after two losses, needing a convincing win combined with favourable results elsewhere to have any realistic shot at advancing, whereas Iraq are all but gone at the foot of the group with a minus six goal difference after two heavy defeats, returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1986.
Pape Thiaw took charge of Senegal in December 2024, drawing on his experience as a 2002 World Cup squad member and led them to the 2025 AFCON title, while Graham Arnold arrived as Iraq boss in May 2025 after guiding Australia at the 2022 tournament and oversaw their qualification for this edition. The two coaches have never faced each other at international level, so whatever tactical adjustments Arnold has made for this match, Thiaw is walking in blind.
Senegal come into this having lost 1-3 to France and 2-3 to Norway in the group stage, conceding six goals across those two games. A 0-0 friendly draw with Saudi Arabia and a 3-2 win over the USA showed they can score three in a game, though the group stage has exposed real weaknesses at the back despite their strong qualification campaign and the 2025 AFCON title. Iraq arrive having lost 0-3 to France and 1-4 to Norway and while a draw against Spain and a narrow win over Andorra represent their better moments, seven goals conceded in two World Cup outings is a brutal number.
Edouard Mendy is out with a knee injury, so Diaw starts in goal behind a back four of Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate and Diouf, with Camara, Idrissa Gueye and Pape Gueye in midfield and Sarr, Jackson and Mané up front. Koulibaly is expected to start despite his errors against Norway, which is either a show of faith or a lack of alternatives depending on how you read it. For Iraq, Aymen Hussein is doubtful after coming off early in a previous match, with Mohanad Ali or Ali Al-Hamadi potentially leading the attack. Their likely side has Basil in goal with a back four of Ali, Tahseen, Hashem and Doski and Al-Ammari, Iqbal, Qasem Al-Hamadi and Bayesh further forward.
Senegal's 4-3-3 relies on the pace of Sarr and Mané wide and midfield creativity from Camara and Gueye. The individual quality across their front line and the defensive problems Iraq have shown in both group games point to a clear mismatch, though Senegal's own defensive lapses and wastefulness in front of goal have cost them in both group games too. Iraq under Arnold sit deep, defend in a low block and look to hit on the break but they have managed just one goal in two World Cup games. The key battle is Senegal's wide players against Iraq full backs Doski and Ali, both of whom were exposed in the previous two games and Iraq sitting deep invites sustained pressure. The concern for Senegal is the space behind Koulibaly and Niakhate that both France and Norway ran into repeatedly and there is nothing in Iraq's setup to suggest they won't try the same.
This is the first competitive meeting between the two sides and Senegal enter it needing a win while Iraq need a miracle just to finish third.
Senegal have to win, so they will push men forward from the off, which is exactly the kind of open game Iraq need if they are to threaten on the counter. Iraq's goal against Norway came that way and if Senegal's back line gets stretched again as it did in both group games, they have the pace to punish it. Senegal haven't kept a clean sheet at this tournament and with six goals conceded in two games there is no reason to expect that to change here. Senegal 2-1 Iraq, with the win giving them the points and goal difference boost they need to keep their third place hopes alive.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
