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HomeFootball PredictionsUEFA Europa Conference LeagueVelez vs Milsami Prediction: Conference League First Qualifying Round
Match Prediction

Velez vs Milsami Prediction: Conference League First Qualifying Round

Analytical preview of FK Velez Mostar vs FC Milsami Orhei in the UEFA Europa Conference League first qualifying round first leg on July 9 2026.

Our prediction
Velez
Velez
1-0
Milsami
Milsami

FK Velez Mostar host FC Milsami Orhei at Bilino Polje in Zenica on 9 July 2026, in the opening leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League first qualifying round tie, with the second leg taking place a week later in Orhei, Moldova and the winner advancing to face FC DAC 1904 of Slovakia. Velez finished fourth in the Bosnian Premier League with 51 points from 36 matches, whereas Milsami finished somewhere between fourth and seventh in the Moldovan Super Liga. Ibrahim Rahimic has managed Velez since 2025, while Alexei Savinov took charge of Milsami in April 2026 and neither has faced the other competitively before.

Velez's recent results have been uneven, with wins over Radnik Bijeljina and Rudar Prijedor offset by a draw with Posusje and defeats to Sarajevo and Zrinjski, their cup final runners up finish rounding out a season that promised more than it delivered at times.

Velez vs Milsami article image 1
Credit: DepositPhotos

Milsami's recent results offer a cleaner read: a heavy defeat to Petrocub, then resilient draws against Zimbru and Sheriff. The draw with Sheriff is probably the most instructive, showing they can absorb pressure from one of Moldova's stronger sides without conceding.

Neither club has reported significant absences, though injury information is thin this early in the European calendar. Velez typically line up in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with Ivan Saric leading the attack and players like Hrkaç Mesic and midfielders Babic and Duric in support and Milsami's squad news is similarly sparse ahead of the trip.

Velez vs Milsami article image 2
Credit: P.Dziurman | DepositPhotos

The central battle pits Saric, Velez's top scorer with around six league goals, against Milsami's centre backs, with Hrkaç Mesic operating behind him and Serbecic and Pidro providing defensive cover further back. If Milsami hold firm into the second half, a 0-0 or one goal deficit still keeps the second leg alive in Orhei, if Velez break through early, the outcome may be closer to settled before the teams reconvene in Moldova.

Velez's set piece delivery at home is probably the single biggest asymmetry in this tie, given how difficult it is for any visiting side to prepare for a team's delivery patterns in the space of one week. Betting markets put Velez's win probability at around 60-70%. The prediction here is Velez 1-0 Milsami: Saric's movement in behind is the most likely route to goal and Milsami's results against stronger Moldovan opposition suggest they do concede when the quality is there. A 1-0 lead means Milsami need to score in Orhei, which their recent form suggests they rarely do.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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