The Gre Nal on 11 October 2026 is about as loaded as a derby can get, with both clubs sitting in the relegation zone and nine rounds left to save their season. Grêmio are 18th on 30 points, Internacional just above them on 31 and defeat for either side would make the drop look very close indeed.
Renato Portaluppi returned to Grêmio on 14 September 2026 to replace Luís Castro, bringing a record of 20 wins from 48 meetings against Internacional. Eduardo Baptista, who took over at Inter on 23 September after Paulo Pezzolano left, has little direct history against this fixture and what he does have went against him when Renato was on the other side.
Grêmio haven't won in five Série A matches, drawing with Remo and Palmeiras before losing to Botafogo, Vasco and Vitória in succession. Internacional's recent run is more erratic: a win over Corinthians, a loss to São Paulo, another win against Chapecoense, then defeats to Santos and Bahia. The visitors arrive with a recent win to their name but haven't beaten Grêmio in five Gre Nal fixtures across all competitions.
Grêmio are short in several areas. Dodi is suspended after picking up his third yellow card, Diego Caito is out with a muscular injury, Marlon has a thigh problem, Jovane Cabral is sidelined with a thigh injury and Matheus Nascimento is nursing an ankle issue. That's a lot of midfield and defensive cover gone at once and Renato will need to reshuffle his shape to compensate. Internacional have their own doubts, with Rochet carrying lumbar and vertebra issues and Kayky nursing an ankle complaint. Neither absence is confirmed yet but losing Rochet in particular would disrupt how they build from the back.
Grêmio's approach under Renato has been deliberately compact, he prioritises efficiency over possession, which suits a squad that creates more from transitions and set pieces than from sustained build up. Carlos Vinícius leads the line with Cristian Pavón operating wide and Mathías Villasanti anchors the midfield. The absences thin that out considerably, so expect Grêmio to hold their shape and rely on dead ball situations and transitions with a reduced squad. Internacional have conceded the fewest shots away from home in the division, making them one of the tightest defensive units on the road. They typically line up in a 3-4-2-1, with Alan Patrick as the creative engine behind the striker, Thiago Maia providing midfield cover and Vitinho threatening in behind, while Alexandro Bernabei gets forward from the left. The battle between Villasanti and Maia in the middle should determine whether Grêmio can win the second ball and keep possession out of Alan Patrick's range, or whether Inter's attack gets time on the ball. If Bernabei gets forward and Pavón is Grêmio's wide outlet, that duel decides whether Grêmio have an outlet on the left or are forced through the middle.
Grêmio beat Internacional 3-1 in the 2026 Copa do Brasil, including a 3-1 home win in the September return leg, which hands them momentum in this fixture even if the Série A record at the Arena has been more even.
Grêmio's clearest route to goal, with open play options reduced by injuries, runs through dead ball situations and both sides are chasing results they badly need, with Internacional looking for a first Gre Nal win in five attempts.
Grêmio 2-1 Internacional. Home advantage and Renato's record against Inter outweigh the squad disruption. Vinícius at set pieces and Pavón on the counter are where the goals are most likely to come from and if Villasanti can't contain him, Alan Patrick has the quality to create an Inter equaliser. But Renato's 20 wins in 48 meetings against this opponent, combined with the 3-1 Copa win in September, give Grêmio a concrete recent reference point and back them to edge it.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
