Mirassol host Internacional on 16 October 2026 in a Brasileirão Série A Matchday 31 fixture with real relegation stakes. Mirassol sit 15th with 33 points from 30 matches and Internacional are 17th with 32, meaning both sides are watching the drop zone rather than the top of the table, with Mirassol entering as slight home favourites at an estimated 46 percent win probability.
Rafael Guanaes and Eduardo Baptista have no head to head history between them, given that Guanaes has been at Mirassol since March 2025 while Baptista only took charge of Internacional on 23 September 2026, replacing Paulo Pezzolano with eight weeks of the season left to salvage.
Mirassol's last five reads L-D-W-D-W, their most recent result a 0-1 win away at Bahia on 11 October 2026, before a 1-1 draw at home to Red Bull Bragantino on 7 October. Internacional's last five reads D-W-L-W-L, including a 1-1 draw against Grêmio on 11 October and a 2-1 home win over Corinthians on 7 October but those bookend defeats are precisely why Baptista still has no margin for error.
Mirassol are missing Negueba (torn knee ligaments, long term), João Victor (suspended after a red card) and José Aldo (muscle injury), removing width on both flanks and cover in the middle simultaneously, which means whoever deputises must stay compact and avoid leaving Eduardo isolated up front. Internacional have it worse: Alan Patrick is out from the Grenal derby with a thigh and hamstring injury, Sergio Rochet is missing with lumbar problems, Guillermo Maripán is sidelined by a hamstring issue and Kayky remains unavailable with a long term ankle injury. Losing Alan Patrick stings most, since he is the one player Baptista's system is built around distributing through and without him there is nobody to dictate tempo in the middle third. Losing Rochet and Maripán at the same time leaves Baptista patching together a centre back pairing he has not used before.
Mirassol work from a 4-2-3-1 and sit deep before releasing Eduardo on the break. Reinaldo at left back is the captain and the overlapping outlet, pushing high enough to occupy the right channel and deliver from the byline, while Eduardo leads the line with six league goals and a habit of dropping into pockets between the lines. Without Negueba, João Victor and José Aldo, midfield discipline matters more than ever: Mirassol will need to protect the centre and trust Eduardo's movement in behind to create and finish what little the counter offers. Baptista has shifted Internacional to a 3-4-2-1 built around set piece organisation and controlled transitions, with Vitinho and Alerrandro up front and Johan Carbonero leading their scoring charts with seven goals. The absences, particularly Alan Patrick's, mean Internacional will rely more heavily on wing back balance and Carbonero running in behind a high Mirassol defensive line with no support runners alongside him. The key individual battles are Reinaldo against Internacional's right sided defenders and Eduardo's runs in behind whichever centre back pair Baptista fields without Maripán.
Mirassol have the better of recent meetings, going two wins and a draw across the last three between May 2025 and April 2026: a 2-1 win in April 2026, a 3-1 win in October 2025 and a 1-1 draw in May 2025. With Alan Patrick missing, Internacional's best route to creating something is set pieces rather than open play, which suits Baptista's dead ball focus in theory, though Mirassol are compact enough to make even those chances scarce. With Mirassol content to concede the ball, the match is likely to be decided in the moments between shape and chaos rather than by either side building through it.
Mirassol to win 2-1. Their defensive shape and Eduardo's six goals should be enough to absorb Internacional's dead ball pressure and punish the spaces left by four key absentees. The win at Bahia showed Mirassol can grind when they need to and Baptista, for all the structural improvements he has made since arriving, does not have the midfield cover to compensate for Alan Patrick's absence. If Mirassol defend their shape and Eduardo finds the same spaces he exploited at Bahia, 2-1 feels right.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
