The Estádio Urbano Caldeira hosts a São Paulo derby on 28 October 2026, with Santos welcoming Palmeiras in Round 33 of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A. Palmeiras sit second with 69 points from 32 games chasing Flamengo at the top, while Santos are eighth on 46 points and still within range of Libertadores qualification, with absences on each bench pulling the teams closer together in quality than the table suggests.
Abel Ferreira has been at Palmeiras since late October 2020 and comes into this one unbeaten in three meetings with Santos, a run that includes a 3-0 win in the Copa do Brasil in August 2026 and a 0-0 in the return leg the following month. Cuca returned to Santos on 19 March 2026 after replacing Juan Pablo Vojvoda, bringing a different set of ideas to the dugout even if the head to head record is working against him.
Santos arrive on the back of mixed results: a 1-1 draw against Bahia on 24 October, a 2-1 win over Fluminense on 18 October and a 1-2 defeat to Atlético-MG on 11 October give them a W-D-L-D-W record across their last five, a run that keeps them in the mix for Libertadores places but offers no convincing momentum. Palmeiras have been more composed, having taken a 2-0 win over Bragantino on 24 October and dropping points just once across their last five, with Flaco López finding the net in that run.
Santos are missing three players of consequence: Neymar is suspended after a red card, Lucas Veríssimo remains out with a hamstring injury and Gabriel Brazão is unavailable due to a shoulder problem. Palmeiras have their own concerns, with Vitor Roque a doubt through a thigh issue and Ramón Sosa similarly questionable, meaning Abel Ferreira likely reshuffles his front three, with whoever deputises for Roque and Sosa carrying considerably less threat in behind.
Santos typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 built around transitions and set piece delivery at home and Philippe Coutinho takes on more creative responsibility without Neymar while Gabriel Barbosa (Gabigol) leads the line. Gabigol's movement in behind Palmeiras' back three is the most direct route to goal Santos have without Neymar and Coutinho's ability to receive between the lines and switch play quickly could pull Palmeiras' wing backs out of their shape. Palmeiras counter with a 3-4-2-1 that prioritises structured possession before breaking quickly, with Andreas Pereira operating in the half spaces between Santos' midfield and defensive lines and José Manuel López (Flaco López) as their primary goal threat. Gómez's ability to win headers from Santos' deliveries into the box is Palmeiras' first line of set piece defence, though the absence of Roque and Sosa limits the variety in their forward line.
The central contest is Santos' high press against a Palmeiras side that invites pressure and looks to get Flaco López in behind on the turnover, where any loose ball hands him a direct run at goal with Santos' full backs pushed up. Coutinho and Andreas Pereira contesting the number ten zones offers the most technically interesting duel on the pitch, while Gabigol vs. Gómez will determine whether Santos can make anything of their set piece opportunities. With Neymar absent, Santos lean harder on those set piece routines under Cuca and wide deliveries could generate headed chances for Gabigol or late runs from midfielders, though Palmeiras' back three gives them numerical security at corners and Gómez typically captains the defensive shape from set plays.
We're going with 3-3. Santos have home advantage and Gabigol and Coutinho as their primary threats, while Flaco López has shown he can finish chances created on the break and Santos chasing the game suits Palmeiras perfectly. The absences on both sides create imbalances that open the game up rather than tighten it, leaving both attacks exposed to exactly the kind of direct ball Gabigol and Flaco López thrive on. Palmeiras have the experience to hold their shape when Santos press but whether Santos can compensate for Neymar through Gabigol's finishing and collective pressing is the question this game turns on.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
