Match Prediction

Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction: Jaissle’s Pressing Side Eye Revenge After Cup Defeat

A tactical deep-dive into Newcastle’s home clash with Everton, analysing absences, recent form and why a narrow home win looks likely.

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How Newcastle United and Everton compare on rating, form and history.

Newcastle host Everton at St James' Park on 2 November 2026 in Premier League Gameweek 9, four days after Everton beat them 3-1 in the EFL Cup. Both sides are mid table after eight matches, Newcastle on 11 points and Everton on 10 but the timing gives this one a sharper feel than the league position suggests. Moyes got his shot across the bow, now Jaissle has to answer it in his own backyard.

There is not much to go on coach to coach and the gap in Premier League experience between the two managers feels worth noting. Jaissle only took charge in August 2026 after replacing Eddie Howe, while Moyes returned to Goodison in January 2025 following Sean Dyche's exit. Moyes has managed relegation battles and European campaigns, Jaissle has not yet had to handle the pressure of a home league response to a cup defeat.

Newcastle United vs Everton article image 1
Credit: Maynard Manyowa/News Images | DepositPhotos

Newcastle's last five across all competitions read L-W-L-L-W, following the cup loss to Everton with a 2-0 league win over Crystal Palace before falling 1-0 to Aston Villa. Everton's run is W-L-L-D-W: the cup win over Newcastle, back to back league losses to Arsenal and Chelsea, a draw, then another win.

Newcastle are without Tino Livramento (knee) and Ewen Jaouen (hamstring), which matters more than it might sound given Livramento's role as the primary overlapping outlet at right back. Losing Livramento shifts more responsibility onto Harvey Barnes to provide width on the left, with the system leaning even more heavily on Joelinton's physicality to keep the press sustainable. Everton's main concerns are Jarrad Branthwaite, still working through concussion protocols and Jack Grealish, whose availability is clouded by a combination of illness and disciplinary issues. Branthwaite's absence costs Everton one of their better aerial presences at both ends: he wins headers at set pieces and is also one of their more reliable ball progressors out of the back line.

Jaissle runs a 4-2-3-1 built around high pressing and quick vertical transitions, averaging around 46% possession. Joe Willock supplies creativity by carrying and passing between the lines to set tempo from deeper areas. Everton under Moyes sit in a low block, with Thierno Barry leading the line and looking to run in behind on transitions, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall sets the tempo from midfield, carrying from deep and threading passes between the lines to connect Barry to the play. The central duel between Joelinton and Dewsbury-Hall will likely decide who controls midfield tempo, if Newcastle win the second ball consistently, they find space in behind Everton's shape but any overcommitment in the press leaves the channel behind Barnes open for Barry.

Everton have won their last two Premier League meetings against Newcastle and added the 3-1 cup win on 29 October, with goals from Garner, Hackney and Barry. Newcastle's home record against Everton has been inconsistent and how the St James' Park crowd responds after a home cup defeat of this kind is a factor: they can be hostile and vocal from the off and that atmosphere has visibly unsettled visiting sides in recent home games after bad results.

Newcastle United vs Everton article image 2
Credit: Maynard Manyowa/News Images | DepositPhotos

Branthwaite's potential absence removes one of Everton's better aerial defenders, hurting them at both ends when it comes to corners and long throws. Newcastle will try to use Barnes wide to force fouls and test Pickford with crosses from the left. The four day turnaround matters because both sides pressed intensively in the cup tie, Newcastle's bench is arguably the deeper of the two, which may allow Jaissle to rotate without losing much pressing output.

Newcastle United 2-1 Everton. Jaissle has the home crowd, a deeper bench and Joelinton back in midfield where he is most effective. Barry could hurt Newcastle if the press overcommits and Everton's set piece delivery at corners and long throws is a genuine problem for any side without Branthwaite at the other end. But the specific dynamic here, Jaissle needing to answer Moyes in front of his own supporters a week after a cup humbling, is the kind of context that tends to matter and it tilts the game Newcastle's way.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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