SC Paderborn host Hamburger SV on 24 October 2026 in a Bundesliga Matchday 7 encounter between a newly promoted side and a mid table outfit arriving on a three match winning streak, their first such run in 16 years. Paderborn earned promotion via the play offs in 2025-26 and currently sit around 12th after six games, needing a strong home result to build any real stability in the top flight, whereas HSV, with nine points from six matches, will be looking to extend that streak and pull clear of lower mid table.
Kettemann and Polzin have no competitive head to head record between them, with Kettemann taking charge of Paderborn in July 2025 to replace Lukas Kwasniok and Polzin having led HSV since December 2024.
Paderborn's recent form has lurched between competent and leaky: a 2-2 draw away at Werder Bremen on 17 October 2026, following a 0-2 loss at Stuttgart ten days earlier and a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim before that. They can grind out points on the road but go vulnerable when better teams get clinical. HSV come in having won three straight, capped by a 1-0 at Stuttgart on 17 October.
Paderborn are without three players through injury, with Timur Gayret sidelined long term by a knee problem, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant out with a similar issue and Lasse Eickel unavailable with a back injury. Those absences leave Steffen Tigges, Stefano Marino and Raphael Obermair as Paderborn's only realistic attacking options. HSV have their own problems, with Nicolai Remberg out long term through an ACL injury and Mario Vuskovic suspended under a doping ban. Losing Remberg limits midfield depth and Vuskovic's absence removes an established starter from the backline, forcing Polzin to rearrange his defensive shape.
Paderborn operate in compact 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 shapes, prioritising defensive organisation and structured build up before springing counters. Under Kettemann they keep narrow defensive lines that force opponents wide, then look to release Tigges and Marino on the break, with Obermair providing the midfield creativity to switch play or thread passes in behind a high defensive line. With Gayret, Awortwie-Grant and Eickel all unavailable, Paderborn have almost nothing in reserve in attack, making Tigges's hold up play and Marino's movement off the last defender's shoulder more important than usual.
HSV counter with their own 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 variants, with Polzin rotating between shapes depending on whether they are chasing or protecting a lead. Fabio Vieira operates as HSV's primary playmaker, Yussuf Poulsen is their captain and main threat in behind and Miro Muheim has contributed goals from midfield in recent weeks. Vieira's assist numbers suggest he can unlock compact defences with through balls in behind, a threat that only grows if Paderborn push for an equaliser and their wing backs advance.
The central battle will probably come down to Paderborn's wing backs against HSV's wide midfielders, with Paderborn's wing backs needing to track Muheim and Vieira's rotations while still covering the channels behind them. The lack of depth could leave them exposed and Poulsen's aerial presence will test central defenders who have fewer backup options than usual. If Paderborn keep things narrow and deny Vieira room, they have a reasonable chance of frustrating HSV's build up. If HSV go more direct and get Poulsen involved early, they force Paderborn into the kind of low block defending that their build up play appears well suited to breaking down.
Recent meetings have been fairly even. Paderborn won 2-0 at home in March 2025 and HSV took a 2-2 draw in September 2024, with the last ten encounters sitting at roughly four wins apiece and several draws in between. The March 2025 result is the most relevant data point but with both squads changed since, it tells us relatively little.
Set pieces could be decisive given the absences on both sides, with Paderborn's compact shape typically producing well organised zonal marking but losing Eickel and Gayret reducing their aerial threat at both ends. Poulsen's presence in the box at corners gives HSV an obvious target without Vuskovic's usual aerial contribution at the other end, while Paderborn may look to exploit transitions after corners using Obermair's delivery to find Tigges.
Paderborn's organised home setup will make life difficult but HSV's ability to rotate options in attack and midfield, something Paderborn simply lack with three players out, looks like the decisive factor. The likeliest route to an HSV win runs through Vieira picking apart a stretched Paderborn midfield and Poulsen getting on the end of it, though Paderborn will probably grab one through a Tigges or Marino counter. Predicted score: 1-2 to the visitors.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
