Match Prediction

Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn Prediction: Thioune's Side Set for Home Edge in Bundesliga Clash

Detailed tactical preview and 2-1 score prediction for Werder Bremen against SC Paderborn in Bundesliga Matchweek 6 on 17 October 2026.

ELO head-to-head

How Werder Bremen and Paderborn compare on rating, form and history.

Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn on 17 October 2026 in a Matchweek 6 fixture that puts a mid table side with real momentum against a newly promoted club still finding its feet, with Werder sitting seventh after five games and Paderborn down in fifteenth.

Daniel Thioune took charge at Werder on 4 February 2026, replacing Horst Steffen and already holds a 1-0 win over Ralf Kettemann, who arrived at Paderborn on 1 July 2025 following Lukas Kwasniok's departure.

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn article image 1
Credit: Vitalii Kliuiev | Copyright 2026 Vitalii Kliuiev, all rights reserved. | DepositPhotos

Werder arrive off a 2-2 draw at Borussia Dortmund on 9 October having come back from 2-0 down, which is about as good a character reference as you can ask for at this point in the season and their last five results of D-W-D-W-L reflect a side that is hard to beat even on difficult days. Paderborn, by contrast, lost 0-2 to VfB Stuttgart on 10 October and carry a form line of L-W-L-L-D, one win in five and four points on the board.

Werder have a long injury list, with Skelly Alvero (calf), Senne Lynen (pelvis), Jens Stage (thigh), Keke Topp (ACL), Justin Njinmah (thigh), Moussa N'Diaye (groin) and Felix Agu all out, though Füllkrug and Grüll are still standing, which is more than enough. Paderborn are without Timur Gayret (ACL) and Sebastian Klaas (hamstring), both approaching fitness but unavailable here, Kettemann otherwise has a full group to pick from.

Werder tend to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Niclas Füllkrug leading the line and four goals already in five games. He causes problems through intelligent movement rather than brute force and Marco Grüll alongside him on the wing has five assists already this season, an absurd number this early in the campaign. Ludovit Reis arriving late from midfield adds another dimension Paderborn's defenders will have to track.

For Paderborn, Santiago Castañeda contributes from midfield while Marvin Pieringer leads the attack in a 3-5-2 that concedes little on paper but has produced only one win in five, with limited output from open play across the run.

Unpicking a compact midfield block is the central challenge for Werder here. Füllkrug's hold up play should open space for Grüll on the outside, though Paderborn's wing backs will look to crowd those channels. Reis's runs from deep test the visitors' centre backs, especially when Werder switch the play quickly after winning possession back and Paderborn will press high to disrupt Werder's build up and try to spring Pieringer in behind.

These sides have met only once at this level, a 0-0 in the DFB Pokal in August 2026, which tells you almost nothing beyond the fact that neither team gave much away.

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn article image 2
Credit: Vitalii Kliuiev | Copyright 2026 Vitalii Kliuiev, all rights reserved. | DepositPhotos

With so many attackers missing, Werder's set piece delivery matters more than usual and Paderborn have created little from dead balls themselves this season, which means that trade off is likely to favour the hosts.

Werder Bremen to win 2-1. Füllkrug and Grüll should have enough quality to break Paderborn down, particularly through set pieces if open play stays cagey and the character Werder showed at Dortmund makes it genuinely hard to see them dropping points at home. Paderborn's defensive organisation means they are rarely blown away and Pieringer or Castañeda picking up a late goal from a counter or dead ball would not be a surprise.

Ryan Baldi
Author

Ryan Baldi

Football Writer

Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.

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