Fiorentina vs Como Prediction: Vanoli Seeks Stability Against Fàbregas' Clinical Attack

Serie A Matchday 7 pairs a side stuck at the bottom of the table with one that has quietly climbed to eighth and won four of their last six in all competitions. Fiorentina sit 19th with just four points from six games and have already burned through a head coach in the process. Como, in eighth with 11 points, are juggling domestic progress with their first Champions League campaign in decades. The stakes could not be more different: Fiorentina desperately need points to avoid early season freefall, while Como arrive knowing they can afford to play their own game.

Paolo Vanoli only took charge at Fiorentina on 7 September 2026, replacing Fabio Grosso after three straight defeats, so there is no head to head record between him and Cesc Fàbregas. Fàbregas has been at Como since July 2024 without ever crossing Vanoli in competitive football, meaning both managers are reading each other on paper rather than from memory.

Fiorentina's last five league games read L-D-W-L-L: they fell 1-2 to Genoa, drew 1-1 with Napoli, beat Venezia 4-2, lost 1-2 to Torino and were hammered 0-3 by Frosinone. That win over Venezia is an outlier, they scored four but still conceded twice and the defensive picture across the other five games has been consistently bad, with 14 goals shipped in six matches. Como's recent domestic record is tighter, posting a 0-0 draw at Roma and a 0-2 win over Frosinone. In Europe, a 4-1 win over RB Leipzig showed what they can do at their best, whereas a 2-3 defeat to Feyenoord showed they are still capable of switching off at the wrong moment.

The most significant absentee for Fiorentina is Fabiano Parisi, ruled out with an ACL injury. His absence removes the one player they had consistently advancing down the left and crossing into the box, forcing Vanoli to either push Gnonto or Mastantuono into half spaces or accept a lopsided shape. Como travel without Moise Kean, sidelined with a leg injury that removes their most reliable hold up option in transition, while Assane Diao is also doubtful with a thigh problem, leaving Fàbregas short of options on the wings.

Fiorentina look likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1, with Franco Mastantuono as the likeliest source of a goal after his three early season strikes. Beto is the target for longer balls, while Fagioli operates as the deeper of the two midfielders looking to pick passes into the forward line, with Radu Drăgușin sitting in front of the back four. Without Parisi on the left there is a real vulnerability on that side: shifting Gnonto or Mastantuono into half spaces opens up exactly the space Como can exploit once they win the ball back.

Como run a similar 4-2-3-1, built around Nico Paz as the creative engine, with Martin Baturina moving in the pockets around him, while Lucas Da Cunha offers midfield rotation and Trevoh Chalobah anchors the base. Douvikas is now the only recognised striker available to Fàbregas, which puts more weight on him to hold up play, though with Paz and Baturina supplying him he has the support to make it work. The central battle will be Paz against Fagioli in the middle third and it is the contest that will most likely determine which way the match goes.

Vanoli will want his side to press Paz aggressively but overcommitting on Paz risks leaving Fiorentina's centre backs one on one with Baturina and Douvikas, which is a bad matchup for a defence that has already shipped 14 goals in six matches.

Drăgușin's aerial ability makes him Fiorentina's main set piece threat, with Mastantuono likely to swing in corners and free kicks from the left, while Chalobah often anchors the near post at the other end. Fiorentina need to get in front early, because chasing this Como side once they have a lead is not a position they have shown they can handle.

Fiorentina 1-2 Como. Fiorentina's defensive record of 14 goals conceded in six games already tells you how much margin they have against a Como side that creates chances through the Paz-Baturina combination in the half spaces. The 4-2-3-1 gives Como control of central areas and the loss of Parisi hurts Fiorentina more than the loss of Kean hurts Como. Fiorentina will likely find a goal through Mastantuono's individual quality or a set piece header but Como have enough in midfield to stay in control for long enough that Fiorentina cannot sustain pressure, with Douvikas scoring. It leaves Fiorentina in a very uncomfortable place and puts Como six points clear of their expected position after seven games.