Monza vs Sassuolo Prediction: Can Sassuolo Extend Momentum Against Winless Monza?

Serie A matchweek 5 brings Monza and Sassuolo together on 18 September 2026, the two clubs pulling in almost opposite directions. Monza sit 18th after four games, still searching for their first win and already staring at the bottom three, whereas Sassuolo arrive ninth with real confidence after beating Juventus 3-2 last weekend. One side needs to stop the bleeding, the other wants to climb. The head to head history actually favours Monza, which means the numbers point one way and the table points the other.

Monza's run reads L D L L across their last four: a 2-3 defeat at Lecce on 13 September, a 1-1 draw with Parma on 6 September, a 2-3 loss at Udinese on 29 August and a 1-4 hammering by Inter on 22 August. That's one point from a possible twelve and they have conceded in every game this season. Sassuolo have gone W D W L over the same stretch, collecting seven points and saving the best for last with that 3-2 win over Juventus. They have won two of their last three, kept their shape under real pressure at Juventus and are rotating without visible disruption.

Ivan Jurić and Alberto Aquilani haven't faced each other before, with Jurić taking charge at Monza on 1 July 2026 to replace Paolo Bianco and Aquilani arriving at Sassuolo on 12 June to replace Fabio Grosso. No prior tactical history between them, so this is a blank slate.

Jurić is missing Matteo Pessina (knee) and Patrick Ciurria (injury), stripping away his primary creative voice in midfield and most of his width from the right in a single blow. Aquilani has his own problems: Jay Idzes is out with a quad strain, Fali Candé is sidelined long term and Ismaël Koné is unavailable for the foreseeable future. Losing three central midfielders is a heavy toll, though Berardi, Esposito and Laurienté are all available and the attack holds its shape.

Monza set up in a 3-4-2-1 and have been exposed defensively in all four matches. Without Pessina's ability to control tempo or Ciurria's threat from the right, Jurić's side will lean heavily on Andrea Colpani to link midfield and attack, with Gustavo Varela as the lone striker and Michael Folorunsho sitting in front of the back three to win second balls. Sassuolo play a 4-3-3 with Berardi as the natural reference point, Laurienté beating full backs one on one from the left and Esposito cutting inside from the right. Even with Idzes, Candé and Koné absent, the shape holds well enough that Berardi has been directly involved in 19 goals across his last 21 league appearances against promoted clubs and Monza have conceded in every game this season. The individual battles that matter most are Colpani against Sassuolo's midfield and Varela against their centre backs. If Monza can get the ball to Colpani early and let him find Varela in behind, they are in the game. If Sassuolo can isolate Laurienté against Monza's right side, especially once the home side go a goal down and narrow up, that is where the second goal probably comes from.

Monza lead the recent Serie A head to head with three wins from the last six meetings against two draws and one loss, which is the one number that cuts against the straightforward Sassuolo prediction here and one Jurić will be pointing to in his team talk.

Sassuolo look the more likely winners and 1-2 is the call. Monza are under real pressure to avoid a fifth winless result at home and losing Pessina and Ciurria takes away exactly the elements that would let them stay compact and dangerous on the break. Monza's head to head record and home advantage are the two numbers that complicate the obvious read here but Berardi's involvement in 19 goals across 21 appearances against promoted clubs makes him a near-certain threat against a side that has yet to keep a clean sheet. The most likely route to this scoreline is Monza grabbing something early, Sassuolo turning the game and then the home side's defensive brittleness conceding a second on the counter when they pull their wide players forward and leave space in behind.