Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction: Míchel's Attackers Set to Dominate at Home

Ajax host Excelsior on 19 September 2026 in a round seven Eredivisie fixture, with Ajax fourth on 13 points from six matches and a goal difference of plus 12, needing consistent home results to stay in the European qualification hunt under Míchel. Excelsior occupy sixth on 10 points, so dropping points here would seriously dent Ajax's top three ambitions. Míchel and Ruben den Uil have no prior meetings, which makes this their first direct test as opposing managers.

Ajax come in having won four of their last six league matches, dropping points only in a 1-3 defeat to PSV in September, with a 5-1 win over Willem II on 15 September 2026 doing the talking since. Excelsior, by contrast, have won just one of their last five, with a 1-2 defeat at Utrecht on 13 September 2026 their latest setback, though a 2-2 draw at NEC showed they can stay in games against sides above them.

Míchel is dealing with a clutch of absences: ter Stegen is out injured, Daley Blind and Aaron Bouwman are also unavailable and Tolu Arokodare is doubtful with illness. None of this should prevent Ajax from controlling the game but it forces adjustments in both defence and attack. Excelsior have a concern of their own, with top scorer David Garden a doubt after picking up a knock, losing him leaves them without anyone to hold the ball up and relieve pressure during transitions.

Ajax operate a possession oriented 4-3-3 that builds from the back, with Oscar Gloukh as the engine in attacking midfield creating overloads in the half spaces, Kasper Dolberg leading the line and Steven Berghuis offering late runs into the box. Gloukh's ability to find pockets between Excelsior's midfield and defensive lines is where the opener is most likely to come from.

Excelsior's defensive shape sits somewhere between a 4-4-2 and a 5-4-1 and with Garden absent Irakli Yegoian becomes their most likely scorer, while Casper Widell is the most important defensive presence. The issue is that the forward line depends heavily on Garden's movement: without him, the visitors lose the player they rely on to convert the one or two chances they create per game and they have no natural runner to relieve pressure in transition. That makes Excelsior's set piece delivery worth monitoring, especially given the defensive absences Míchel is managing.

Ajax 3-0. Gloukh's movement between the lines is the most likely source of the opener, with Dolberg and Berghuis offering enough variety to fashion multiple chances even against a well drilled visiting defence. Without Garden, Excelsior are unlikely to muster the sustained threat needed to punish a side with this much quality in the final third.