Ajax vs NEC Prediction: Míchel's Attack Aims to End NEC's Recent Dominance

Ajax host NEC at the Johan Cruyff Arena on 10 October 2026, the first Eredivisie fixture after the international break. Ajax sit fifth with 14 points from seven games and a plus 12 goal difference, four points off the top three, while NEC are 11th with eight points and a minus one. The last meeting between these sides produced a 0-3 NEC win at this ground in May 2025, a result that still shapes how both camps approach this one and Ajax have not beaten them in three attempts.

Míchel took over in June 2026 following Oscar García's departure, while Schreuder has been in charge at NEC since 1 July 2025. They have not met before as managers, so there is no head to head history to lean on either way.

Ajax's last five Eredivisie results include dominant home wins over Telstar (4-0), Fortuna Sittard (5-1) and Willem II (5-1), whereas NEC's sequence is considerably worse, with losses at Feyenoord (1-3) and Cambuur (0-3) framing draws with Excelsior (2-2) and Go Ahead Eagles (1-1). The 1-3 defeat at PSV and a 2-2 draw at home to Excelsior also sit in Ajax's recent record, a reminder that the defensive problems have not gone away.

Ajax are without Kasper Dolberg (season ending knee injury), Daley Blind (back), Simon Adingra (ankle/foot) and Aaron Bouwman (long term), while Caio Henrique is a doubt after picking up a knock during the international break, leaving them short in central defence and out wide. NEC's injury list is longer and more damaging to their prospects here: Gonzalo Crettaz (hamstring), Deveron Fonville (ankle), Ahmetcan Kaplan (knee), Bryan Nuytinck (ankle), Emre Mor (groin), Perr Schuurs (ACL/knee) and Clement Bischoff (hamstring doubt) are all unavailable or uncertain, leaving Schreuder short across both defence and midfield, with Kevin Kers also doubtful. Mitchel Bakker, formerly of Ajax, joined NEC on 8 October and is immediately available, potentially giving Schreuder a left sided option he simply did not have a week ago.

Míchel's Ajax press high and force turnovers in advanced areas, with Julian Brandt as the creative hub and top scorer, Gloukh driving forward from midfield, Arokodare leading the line and Berghuis operating on the right. It is a system that depends on the press holding its shape and the same high line that let PSV in three times and allowed Excelsior to level at the Arena shows exactly what happens when it does not.

Schreuder has set NEC up to work through Tjaronn Chery in attacking midfield and Dušan Tadić operating in behind Bryan Linssen. The bigger question is whether Schreuder can put out a back line capable of holding shape for a full 90 minutes: with Kaplan, Nuytinck and Schuurs all absent, whoever fills in at centre back will face Arokodare in behind them and Brandt picking apart the midfield line in front of them. Brandt against the NEC midfield line and Arokodare against a makeshift centre back pairing are the individual battles most likely to decide this.

NEC are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Ajax and most recent encounters have gone over three goals, with Ajax keeping no clean sheet in this fixture for years. Given the defensive absences on both sides, set pieces are worth watching: with Kaplan and Nuytinck missing, there is real aerial vulnerability in the NEC back line that Ajax could exploit from corners and free kicks.

Ajax to win 2-0. Brandt and Arokodare against a hastily assembled NEC centre back pairing is about as favourable a matchup as Míchel could hope for and with seven first team players unavailable or doubtful for the visitors, the defence is not built to hold for 90 minutes. Ajax's own leakiness makes a clean sheet the less certain part of the scoreline but NEC's attack is too depleted to threaten more than once and the scale of their injury list makes it very difficult to see them extending that unbeaten run.