Excelsior vs FC Groningen Prediction: Mid-Table Eredivisie Clash Promises Goals and Drama

Excelsior host FC Groningen at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion on 11 October 2026 in a fixture that matters more than a mid table meeting might suggest. Both sides sit on 11 points from seven Eredivisie matches, separated only by goal difference with Excelsior seventh and Groningen eighth and the winner could move into the top six while the loser risks getting dragged into a more anxious group of clubs below. Ruben den Uil and Dick Lukkien have no meaningful head to head record to draw on, with den Uil having taken charge at Excelsior only in July 2024 after replacing Marinus Dijkhuizen while Lukkien has led Groningen since July 2023.

Excelsior arrive with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five league outings. A 2-2 draw at Ajax on 19 September suggests they can live with stronger opposition, though a 1-2 defeat at Utrecht and a 2-2 home draw with NEC show a side that scored in all five but kept just one clean sheet. Groningen's sequence is more troubling, with one win from their last five and a best result of 3-0 over PEC Zwolle on 18 September. The result that stands out is a 1-5 hammering at PSV.

Excelsior are without Noah Naujoks, sidelined since the opening weekend, which removes a reliable midfield anchor and pushes more creative responsibility toward the attacking players. Groningen face a considerably worse situation, with Malcolm Jeng, Tyrique Mercera, Nikolas Brandis, Wouter Prins, Elvis van der Laan, Travis Hernes and Ryan Metu all out, leaving Lukkien without three recognised centre backs for most of the run in. Rente is expected to return but Lukkien has spent the past few weeks asking youth players and reshuffled combinations to cover for the absences, with Thijmen Blokzijl carrying the extra burden of organising whoever is available behind him.

Excelsior press high in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 while prioritising quick transitions. Aymen Sliti drops between the lines to receive and turn and with four goals and two assists across his last eight appearances for club and country, he is the player Groningen will need to contain most urgently. David Garden leads the line as the primary goalscorer. Groningen use a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 of their own, though where Excelsior look to press and spring quickly through central areas, Groningen tend to use their full backs as the main source of attacking width and numerical advantage in the final third. Thom van Bergen is their most productive player with six goal involvements in seven matches, generating those through third man combinations and late arrivals in the area. Brynjolfur Willumsson leads their goal count, though given how thin the squad is at the back, both he and van Bergen have had to cover significantly more ground defensively than they would want.

The key question is whether Excelsior can punish the gaps that Groningen's missing defenders leave. Sliti pulling wide of Groningen's makeshift centre backs should create the clearest openings, while the risk for Excelsior is overcommitting in possession and leaving themselves exposed to van Bergen and Willumsson exploiting the space in behind. Groningen lead the all time record 11-5, though Excelsior won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 2 May 2026 at Groningen and den Uil's side take confidence from that result going in.

A Groningen backline reshuffled multiple times this season may struggle to organise against repeated set piece deliveries and Excelsior's aggressive pressing should generate corners and free kicks in the final third. Whether Groningen's makeshift defence has the aerial organisation to deal with that volume of delivery is one of the more concrete questions the match will answer.

Excelsior's home pressing and Sliti's ability to find space between the lines should create the clearest openings but losing Naujoks reduces their midfield security. Groningen's defensive injury list will test their organisation all afternoon, yet van Bergen and Willumsson remain a genuine counter attacking combination who could punish Excelsior for overcommitting. Both sides have too much to lose to open up fully and 1-1 looks the most likely result.