NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen Prediction: Midfield Battles Shape Eredivisie Encounter

NEC Nijmegen host FC Groningen at the Goffertstadion on 25 October 2026 in Eredivisie Matchweek 10, a fixture with a different kind of pressure on each side. NEC sit 12th with 10 points from nine games, their record a study in almost but not quite: two wins, four draws and three losses. Groningen are seventh on 14 points but that sequence includes a 2-5 hammering by Ajax last weekend that exposed how quickly they come apart when a press gets through their midfield. NEC need to translate their Europa League buzz into actual league points and Groningen need a result before the slide becomes a trend.

NEC's last five Eredivisie games have produced D-D-D-L-D, a sequence that tells you everything about where this team is right now: competitive, occasionally frustrating, never quite convincing. Their Europa League form is a different matter entirely - after a 1-1 draw with Levski Sofia and a 2-2 against Fortuna Sittard, they arrive here having just put four past Dinamo Zagreb. Groningen showed L-D-D-W-W before the Ajax match cratered their momentum and the question now is whether that 2-5 revealed a structural problem or was just a bad day against a better team.

Dick Schreuder, in charge since July 2025, is without two players who matter quite a bit. Dusan Tadic is out with a calf injury, his absence removing the kind of creativity that keeps NEC's forward play from feeling mechanical. Bram Nuytinck is still sidelined following ankle surgery, leaving the backline less organised than Schreuder would want. Groningen have their own problems: Dick Lukkien, whose contract runs to June 2028, is missing Tyrique Mercera, Elvis van der Laan and Ryan Metu, leaving him short in both defence and midfield for the trip to Nijmegen.

NEC's 3-4-2-1 is built around controlling the midfield, with Tjaronn Chery as the player who makes it tick. He sets the tempo, takes penalties and generally acts as the connective tissue between defence and attack, with Darko Nejasmic anchoring behind him to give the wing backs room to push on. Bryan Linssen leads the line and Perr Schuurs provides calm at the back. Without Tadic and Nuytinck, Chery and Nejasmic will carry more of the build up load and the remaining central defenders will need to stay disciplined to hold the structure.

Groningen's 4-2-3-1 relies on pressing and quick transitions, with Brynjólfur Willumsson leading the attack as their top scorer and Thom van Bergen and Jacob Ondrejka working the flanks. Losing Mercera, van der Laan and Metu will compress Groningen's midfield options, which might give Ondrejka more freedom to drift inside and arrive late into the box. The central battle between Chery's orchestration and Groningen's double pivot is where this game gets decided.

NEC will build from the back with Nejasmic recycling possession before the ball gets to Linssen or the advancing midfielders. Groningen will press high from the start, pushing NEC's centre backs into mistakes and springing Willumsson or Ondrejka before NEC can recover their shape. Without Tadic available to track back in transition, NEC may be more exposed when the game stretches and Groningen's forwards can run in behind NEC's high line. NEC have won six of the last ten meetings between these sides, though the most recent reverse fixture, in May 2026, ended 2-1 to Groningen, who exposed that same vulnerability to transition play against a high defensive line.

Set pieces could be more decisive than usual given the personnel gaps on both sides. Nuytinck's absence means NEC lose their main aerial option at both ends, so Schuurs and the midfielders will need to be first to the ball more often than they would like. Groningen will need tighter marking on Chery during dead ball situations to compensate for their own missing bodies. NEC also carry some fatigue from their Europa League trip midweek, which could show in the second half if the game remains tight.

1-1. NEC have home advantage and the confidence of having just put four past Dinamo Zagreb but losing Tadic and Nuytinck takes the edge off both ends of the pitch. Willumsson's movement and Ondrejka's directness give Groningen ways in, though they are short handed at the back. This shapes up as a game where both teams create chances without either team looking capable of holding a lead if they get one. A draw suits both teams' current situations: NEC cannot afford to lose at home and Groningen cannot afford another result that looks like a slide.