Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia Prediction: Home Attack Poised to Exploit Relegation Zone Visitors

Estrela da Amadora host Casa Pia at the Estádio José Gomes on 24 October 2026, a Primeira Liga Matchday 9 fixture in which the two sides are living in very different realities. Estrela sit tenth with ten points from eight matches, whereas Casa Pia are seventeenth with four points and the worst goal difference in the division. Six losses from eight tells the story: this is a team in serious trouble.

Both managers are new to their posts this summer, so there is no meaningful head to head data between Pepa and Filipe Coelho. Pepa replaced Cristiano Bacci on 1 July and Coelho took charge four days later, making this one of the first real tests of how their respective ideas stack up against each other.

Estrela's league form has been patchy, though the 2-1 Taça de Portugal win over Fazendense following the 0-1 defeat at Arouca kept their cup run alive. Casa Pia's numbers are harder to ignore: only three goals scored and seventeen conceded in eight league matches, with the most recent result a 0-1 home defeat to Santa Clara on 10 October. Their cup win at Alpendorada on 18 October stopped the bleeding briefly but the underlying league numbers remain grim.

Estrela have a clean bill of health, giving Pepa every option for selection. Casa Pia are without David Sousa, suspended after his red card against Santa Clara, which removes a defensive piece from a back line already struggling. Patrick Sequeira started in goal in the cup, hinting at possible rotation, though the bigger concern is whether whoever plays behind Casa Pia's midfield can hold things together for 90 minutes.

Pepa sets Estrela up in a 4-2-3-1 that pushes the full backs high and relies on a double pivot to screen the back four. Stoica and Antonetti have each scored this season and their movement tends to drag defenders out of shape on either flank, which is a persistent problem for a Casa Pia side leaking at more than two goals per match.

Filipe Coelho's side want to defend compactly and hit on the counter but with only three league goals all season that plan has rarely worked. Without Sousa, the defensive structure is even more exposed and Clua will likely need to drop deeper to cover, which leaves Pauwels further from goal and effectively neutralises Casa Pia's only realistic route to scoring.

Estrela have the better of recent meetings, including a 4-0 win over Casa Pia in March 2026 and their current opponents are conceding two per league match, which makes another difficult afternoon look likely.

Casa Pia's defensive organisation has been shaky in open play and set pieces add another layer of vulnerability. A back line conceding from open play at pace may have little left for aerial duels at dead ball situations and the possibility of a goalkeeper change only adds uncertainty at a moment when their defence needs as much familiarity as it can get.

Estrela da Amadora 2-1 Casa Pia. Casa Pia's defensive numbers make a clean sheet unlikely but Pauwels operating in the space Estrela's high line concedes is a genuine variable.