St. Johnstone host Motherwell at McDiarmid Park on 28 October 2026 in a Scottish Premiership fixture with clear enough stakes: both sides sit in the lower half and both have had difficult starts, with St. Johnstone sitting above their visitors on form alone. Simo Valakari and Alfred Johansson haven't had long enough together to build much of a managerial rivalry, Valakari having taken charge on 1 October 2024 following Craig Levein's departure and Johansson arriving on 18 June 2026 to succeed Jens Berthel Askou.
St. Johnstone arrive with mixed momentum, going L D W D L across their last five. The 0-4 loss to Rangers on 24 October was ugly, though it followed a solid 1-1 draw with Dundee United on 17 October and a 1-0 win at Aberdeen on 11 October. Motherwell come in having lost five in a row, their most recent result a 0-2 defeat to Hearts on 25 October that cancelled any credibility from the 3-2 win over Kilmarnock the week before.
Motherwell's injury situation is the story of this fixture. Callum Hendry (knee), Paul McGinn (knee) and Oscar Priestman (calf) are all out and losing both centre backs simultaneously is the kind of blow that changes tactical options entirely. St. Johnstone are also without Zach Mitchell for the season, though a knee injury to one midfielder is a rather different problem from a gutted defensive unit.
Valakari has built St. Johnstone around a low block that releases Fowler into space on the counter, a style that suits the squad well. Reece McAlear anchors the midfield, giving Josh Fowler and Jamie Gullan the freedom to press forward, with Fowler currently leading the scoring charts. Johansson's approach is more proactive, built on pressing and structured build up but with Hendry, McGinn and Priestman all missing, Lowry will have to pick passes from deeper and carry the ball himself rather than leaning on an experienced midfield partner, while Seb Palmer-Houlden and Tawanda Maswanhise chase in behind the last defensive line. Losing two experienced centre backs weakens Motherwell's ability to hold a high line and St. Johnstone's transition game was built for exactly that kind of gap.
McAlear versus Lowry is the midfield contest that will likely define this match: McAlear controlling tempo keeps Motherwell's press toothless, while Lowry finding Palmer-Houlden and Maswanhise in space is how the visitors stay in it despite their form. Which of them gets on top is probably the cleanest indicator of where this ends up.
St. Johnstone have the slight edge historically, with around 23 wins to Motherwell's 17 and roughly 10 draws, though recent meetings have been close enough that no pattern really holds, making the current form gap and home advantage more relevant than anything in the record books.
Set pieces are where St. Johnstone can most directly hurt a depleted Motherwell defence and Valakari has clearly drilled the squad on delivery and aerial movement in those situations. They came back up after winning the Championship in 2025/26 with a more settled defensive structure and a cleaner shape than anything they showed in previous top flight spells and that solidity gives them the foundation to take advantage of a visiting side missing its first choice defensive pairing.
We're backing a 2-1 win for St. Johnstone. Fowler running in behind a makeshift centre back pairing is the likeliest route to goal, with set pieces offering a secondary threat. Motherwell's five game losing run has exposed a team that cannot find the net regardless of what it creates and Lowry and Palmer-Houlden, though genuinely dangerous, are unlikely to overturn both the home advantage and a defensive unit that simply isn't there.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
