Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Prediction: Basque Derby Set for Tense Stalemate

The Basque derby arrives at San Mamés on 19 September 2026 for Matchday 7 of La Liga, with Athletic sitting ninth on seven points from five games and Alaves ahead of them in sixth on ten points from six, both sides with Europe already in their thinking. Athletic are working under Edin Terzić, who took over from Ernesto Valverde, while Alaves have been managed by Quique Sánchez Flores since he replaced Eduardo Coudet on 3 March 2026. There is no recorded head to head between the two managers.

Athletic arrive with a mixed five game run - a draw with Elche, wins over Atlético Madrid and Celta Vigo, then losses to Barcelona and Sevilla - whereas Alaves went L-L-W-W-D, losing to Valencia and at Racing Santander before beating Osasuna and Villarreal and drawing at Rayo Vallecano.

Athletic's injury list is genuinely disruptive. Dani Vivian, Gorka Guruzeta, Peio Canales and Unai Eguiluz are all out and Iñaki Williams is doubtful with an ankle knock. That's a first choice centre back, a striker and several layers of squad cover gone before a match where Athletic would normally expect to control proceedings through their press and Nico Williams wide. Alaves are without Mikel Rodríguez long term with a knee problem and Facundo Garcés and Aitor Mañas also miss out, which thins their defensive and midfield cover considerably.

Athletic's default under Terzić is a 4-2-3-1 built around pressing. Nico Williams leads the attack wide, with Oihan Sancet behind him and Aymeric Laporte organising at the back in front of Unai Simón. The problem is that Vivian alongside Laporte had been the settled first choice pairing at centre back and Guruzeta's absence up front limits Athletic's options in the air and in behind - if Iñaki Williams doesn't make it either, the attacking depth gets thin fast.

Alaves shift shape depending on the game, moving between a 3-5-2 and variations of a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. Lucas Boyé and Toni Martínez lead the line, with Antonio Blanco and Carles Aleñá behind them and Nahuel Tenaglia and Nicolás Valentini in the back four. Coming to San Mamés with Rodríguez gone and Garcés and Mañas unavailable, Sánchez Flores will likely start in a 3-5-2 and invite Athletic onto them, trusting Boyé and Martínez to exploit the space Terzić's press leaves behind. The individual battles that decide it are likely to be Nico Williams against whoever Alaves put at right back, Sancet and Blanco fighting for midfield position and Laporte trying to organise a reshuffled back line against Boyé and Martínez on the break.

Athletic have the better of this fixture historically and especially at San Mamés, with their last meeting ending 4-2 in May 2026, an unusually open result for a derby.

Athletic target wide deliveries from set pieces, Alaves look to Boyé and Martínez from corners and direct free kicks. Losing Guruzeta and potentially Iñaki Williams means Athletic's press will have fewer targets to run in behind, which blunts the threat that comes off winning the ball high up the pitch.

Athletic will have the ball and create pressure but with Vivian, Guruzeta, Canales and Eguiluz out and Iñaki Williams doubtful, they are missing the striker most likely to hold the line and the winger most likely to beat his man. Alaves, already short in defence and midfield with Rodríguez, Garcés and Mañas absent, have every reason to sit deep. Without Guruzeta to hold the press and Iñaki Williams potentially absent wide, Athletic are unlikely to find the goal that breaks Alaves open. A 0-0 draw is the likeliest outcome.