La Liga Matchday 7 brings the Madrid derby to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on 20 September 2026, with kick off at around 16:15 CET. Atletico sit fourth with 13 points from six games and Real second on 15, both trailing Barcelona but close enough that this fixture can genuinely reshape the early season picture. What makes it more loaded than a typical derby is Mourinho returning to it for the first time since taking charge again at Real, facing the one manager who has made these games genuinely uncomfortable for him historically.
Simeone trails Mourinho across their six previous meetings, losing three and winning two with one draw, though his compact shape has punished Mourinho on the counter often enough to stop the head to head reading as comfortable for Mourinho.
Atletico have scored 10 goals across their last three wins, beating Osasuna 4-0 on 16 September, Real Sociedad 3-0 three days earlier and Sevilla 3-1 before that, with their only defeat a 0-3 beating at Athletic Club on 5 September. Real's form across six league games reads five wins and one defeat, a 3-2 win at Elche on 15 September and a 4-1 hammering of Rayo Vallecano on 12 September, with their one defeat coming in a 0-1 loss at Real Betis on 4 September.
Atletico are without Pablo Barrios through a muscle problem, with Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth both doubts for the same reason. Losing all three at once hurts: Barrios covers the most ground in Atletico's midfield and Alvarez and Sorloth are the options Simeone leans on when he wants to hold the ball up front. Real travel without Eder Militao, out long term with a hamstring injury, Ferland Mendy with a hip problem and Rodrygo, also out long term with a knee issue. The absences of Militao and Mendy force reshuffling at the back and leave the left side exposed.
Atletico's 4-4-2 or 3-4-2-1 keeps things compact and relies on pressing. The Barrios, Alvarez and Sorloth absences leave less structure in midfield and fewer reliable outlets in attack, which means Alejandro Grimaldo's overlapping runs from left back become more important than usual, while Alex Baena has to provide creative output from deeper. Jonathan David's movement in behind is Atletico's sharpest weapon, though he needs more support than usual if Real drop into their defensive block and deny the space in behind.
Real's 4-2-3-1 is built around sitting in two compact banks and transitioning quickly, with set pieces as a secondary route to goal. Jude Bellingham's movement through central areas is the most likely way Real break Atletico's press consistently, while Vinicius and Mbappe provide the pace to exploit the space left behind Atletico's wide midfielders when the press goes on. Guler's ability to receive between the lines and play quickly into Mbappe's run could be the way Real create their clearest chances.
Grimaldo against Real's right sided attackers is the matchup that cuts both ways: his forward runs are the main way Atletico create overloads in Real's half but the space he vacates is exactly what Vinicius and Mbappe will look for. Baena versus Bellingham will decide whether Atletico can keep Real pinned back or whether Bellingham dictates rhythm and Real wait for Atletico to commit men up, while David versus Real's centre backs will determine whether Atletico can manufacture anything resembling a clear chance despite the forward line disruption.
Real hold a large historical advantage, with roughly 125 wins to Atletico's 60 across 243 meetings. Derbies have got tighter in recent years, though and that history is part of why both managers will set up cautiously rather than press high and leave space in behind from the off.
Real's dead ball delivery is organised and practised and Atletico's reshuffled defence is more vulnerable in the air without Militao, making Real's delivery into the box a real source of danger. Atletico will look to use Grimaldo's crossing from the left to offset that, while Atletico need three points to close on the leaders and Real want to show early in Mourinho's second stint that they can win the fixtures that matter.
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Real Madrid. Even without Rodrygo, Real's forward options are more varied than what Atletico can put up front with Barrios, Alvarez and Sorloth all missing and the forward line problems make it hard for Simeone's side to sustain prolonged pressure. Bellingham's movement between the lines should give him a clear advantage over Baena without Barrios alongside him and the pace of Vinicius and Mbappe on the break combine to make Real the likelier winners, even if the margin is slim.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
