Valencia host Real Madrid at Mestalla on 7 November 2026 in La Liga Matchweek 12, a fixture that pits a side deep in the relegation zone against one chasing the title. Valencia sit 19th with just 9 points from 11 games and a goal difference of minus nine, while Real Madrid are third on 27 points, three points behind the leaders and yet to lose in the league this season. Valencia need to arrest a poor home record and Madrid look to extend a seven match winning run across all competitions.
José Mourinho returned to the Real Madrid dugout in June 2026, replacing Álvaro Arbeloa. Javier Aguirre took charge of Valencia on 23 September 2026, stepping in after Oscar Sanchez's brief interim spell following Carlos Corberán's departure and has pushed them into a compact 4-4-2 mid block in the six weeks since.
Valencia's last five La Liga outings read L D D L W, with a 1-0 victory at Elche offering brief respite while they remain without a home league win in six attempts this season. Real Madrid arrive in far better shape, winning all five of their last league games and seven in a row overall, with a 3-2 Champions League win at AEK Athens and a 3-0 league win over Racing Santander among the highlights.
Valencia face significant disruption with Sergi Canós, Diego López and David Otorbi all ruled out through knee and hamstring injuries while José Manuel Copete remains a doubt at centre back, leaving Aguirre to build around Umar Sadiq, recently returned from injury and José Gayà at left back. For Madrid, Rodrygo is out long term with a knee injury, Raúl Asencio is unavailable with a leg problem, Ferland Mendy is sidelined through hip and knee issues and Vinícius Júnior serves a domestic ban, with Kylian Mbappé leading the line and Jude Bellingham dropping into an eight role to link play rather than arriving late into the box.
Aguirre has set Valencia up in a compact low block built around set piece threats and quick counters, leaning on Sadiq's hold up play to spring the attack. Losing Canós, López and Otorbi leaves the defensive line thinly covered and if Copete is absent too, the centre back pairing may be patched together on the night, with the right side in particular short of its first choice options. Without Vinícius, Mourinho's Madrid rely more heavily on Mbappé for goals while Bellingham's deeper positioning changes how the side look going forward. Valencia's winless home run suggests their low block will come under sustained pressure once Madrid settle into their rhythm.
Madrid have six wins from the last ten meetings, with the two most recent ending 0-2 and 4-0 at Mestalla, against just two wins for Valencia across that entire run. That 4-0 scoreline in November 2025 makes for particularly uncomfortable reading ahead of this one.
Valencia's clearest route to an upset runs through set pieces, where Sadiq's aerial threat gives them a target for long clearances and a corner kick presence. Losing Mendy removes an aggressive option at left back for Madrid, though it feels like a minor inconvenience rather than a structural weakness given how well organised the remaining defensive options are.
We're backing a 0-3 away win. Mbappé and Bellingham are the difference in quality here and with Valencia's centre back pairing likely to be patched together, they should find the gaps once the low block stretches in the second half. Seven straight wins under Mourinho and six of the last ten head to heads going Madrid's way make a Valencia comeback difficult to argue for.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
