Birmingham sit tenth with 10 points from seven games, whereas Middlesbrough arrive third on 14 points and could go joint top with a win at St Andrew's on 19 September 2026. That would also make it six consecutive away wins at this ground, which is the kind of record that should make Blues fans deeply uncomfortable.
Chris Davies took charge at Birmingham on 6 June 2024, replacing Tony Mowbray, while Kim Hellberg has been in the Middlesbrough job since 26 November 2025 after Rob Edwards departed and there is little meaningful head to head data between them to lean on.
Birmingham have drawn all three of their home Championship games this season and scored only once across them, which makes them hard to beat at St Andrew's but equally hard to back as winners. Away from home they look more dangerous: a 2-1 win at Derby showed a team willing to play on the front foot and that is the version of Birmingham that Middlesbrough will be hoping does not show up here. Boro are unbeaten in five league matches, a run that includes a 4-3 thriller against Norwich and a 2-2 draw with Millwall and that consistency has driven them into the top three.
Birmingham are without Patrick Roberts and Marc Leonard, which thins their midfield and wide options considerably and pushes more responsibility onto Jay Stansfield and Liam Millar, while Middlesbrough are missing Alfie Jones with a calf injury, leaving them a little light at the back.
Both sides set up in variations of a 4-2-3-1. Without Roberts and Leonard, Birmingham's double pivot will need to work harder to screen the defence while Stansfield drops deep to link play and Millar runs the channel on the left. Middlesbrough want to win the ball high and spring forward through Riley McGree and Amario Cozier-Duberry. Will Lankshear has been prolific (five or six goals already) and will test Christoph Klarer in central defence, while Adilson Malanda's expected return at centre back should help Boro maintain a compact shape even when pushed back. How Klarer handles Lankshear's movement is probably the defining individual contest of the match and it is genuinely hard to call. The absence of Roberts and Leonard also reduces Birmingham's ability to recycle possession under pressure and if James Beadle distributes quickly to Stansfield and Millar and puts the away defence under one on one pressure, Birmingham can threaten on the break.
Middlesbrough have won the last seven league meetings between the sides, including five consecutive away wins at St Andrew's. Birmingham's most recent league win against them was a 2-0 in October 2021 and that result feels a very long time ago.
Birmingham's dead ball deliveries sidestep the midfield limitations that the losses of Roberts and Leonard create, so Davies will likely make set pieces a prominent part of the game plan. Jones's absence could leave Boro lighter at the back from corners and free kicks, which is one area where Birmingham can test them regardless of their midfield problems. Middlesbrough look solid in xG terms defensively, though both sides will be conscious of the three-week international break arriving immediately after this fixture.
This one looks like a 1-1. Birmingham's three home draws suggest they will make life difficult for Boro but Lankshear's movement and McGree's creativity give Middlesbrough every chance of scoring. The pattern of the season so far points to a share of the spoils: Birmingham hard to beat at home, Boro picking up points without always winning everything outright.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
