Plymouth Argyle vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction: League Leaders Eye Another Home Win

Plymouth host Wimbledon at Home Park on 10 October 2026 in a League One Gameweek 10 fixture, with the division's leaders taking on a Wimbledon side that has put together a four game unbeaten run. Plymouth sit top with 16 points from nine games and a goal difference of +5, whereas Wimbledon are ninth with 12 from eight matches and a goal difference of -2.

Johnnie Jackson has been at Wimbledon since July 2022, when he replaced Mark Bowen, while Tom Cleverley took over at Plymouth in June 2025 after Miron Muslic left, meaning competitive meetings between the two have been rare so far.

Plymouth's form over the past five league games reads W-W-L-W-W. A 2-0 win at Leyton Orient on 3 October followed a 1-0 victory over Burton Albion on 26 September, both coming after a 4-2 defeat at Blackpool on 19 September had interrupted an earlier run of back to back wins over Barnsley (3-0) and Doncaster Rovers (3-2). Wimbledon's last five went D-D-W-W-L: draws at Cambridge United on 26 September and MK Dons on 17 September bracketed a 1-0 win over Doncaster and a 2-0 success against Bromley, before a 4-1 loss at Burton Albion on 2 September opened the sequence.

Plymouth are managing several absences coming into this one: Julio Pleguezuelo is a doubt with a knee problem, Owen Oseni is ruled out with an ankle injury, Michael Baidoo remains unavailable due to an Achilles issue and Malachi Boateng is sidelined with a knee injury, leaving Cleverley leaning on Harvey White and Tyreeq Bakinson in midfield and hoping the forward line stays intact. Wimbledon carry their own concerns, with James Tilley out with a hamstring injury, Mathew Stevens doubtful with the same complaint and both Ryan Johnson and Dujuan Richards also in doubt, leaving goalkeeper Josef Bursik and forwards Jayden Stockley and Myles Hippolyte as the visitors' main reference points despite the uncertainty at the back.

Plymouth have been creating chances at volume under Cleverley, with Aribim Pepple and Tottenham loanee Oli Irow combining for much of the attacking output and Will Evans also contributing recently. Plymouth will likely target the gaps a back three or back five can leave on the flanks, with quick combinations from Irow and Pepple looking to exploit the space in behind Wimbledon's wing backs. Boateng and Baidoo's absences mean White may need to drop deeper at times, which could slow transitions but cover the zones those two would ordinarily patrol.

Wimbledon have kept clean sheets in both recent wins, doing it through defensive organisation and counter attacking intent, though the injury doubts around Johnson and Richards could disrupt the back line's cohesion. Hippolyte and Stockley will need to link effectively with Aron Sasu and Alistair Smith in midfield for the counter to function. The central duel pits Pepple and Evans against Wimbledon's defenders, with Irow looking to spin in behind or drop short to create openings, while Stockley's aerial presence makes Wimbledon a threat from set pieces and gives Jackson's side their clearest route to goal if the defensive shape holds.

Plymouth have won the more recent of the two head to head meetings, beating Wimbledon 3-1 away on 18 April 2026, though they fell 2-1 at home to Wimbledon on 18 October 2025, with both games producing goals at both ends.

Plymouth have won four of their last five, Wimbledon have drawn their last two. Jackson's contract extension through 2027 is a reminder that continuity is not a problem at Wimbledon but the defensive absences are a real concern going into a ground where Plymouth have been difficult to break down.

Plymouth Argyle 2-1 AFC Wimbledon. Pepple and Irow should create enough to give Plymouth the win and the absences of Tilley plus the doubts over Stevens, Johnson and Richards limit how much Wimbledon can sustain pressure. Their threat from set pieces means one Stockley moment could make it 2-1 but Plymouth's home form makes them the clear favourite here.