Serie A Round 24 puts Botafogo, a side in visible transition, up against Athletico Paranaense, who sit third and are pressing hard for Libertadores qualification. Botafogo are 11th with 30 points from 23 games, their season undermined by eight defeats that have left them stranded in mid table and without a Copa Sudamericana campaign after a humiliating exit, whereas Athletico have 41 points and need this result to maintain pressure on the two clubs above them.
Rodrigo Bellão takes charge of this fixture as permanent Botafogo head coach for the first time against Odair Hellmann, though the two have recent history: when Bellão was caretaking in March 2026 he lost 4-1 to Hellmann's side. Hellmann has been in post since replacing Mauricio Barbieri on 22 May 2025, giving him over a year of continuity at the club, whereas Bellão only took over from Franclim Carvalho on 19 August 2026, days before this fixture.
Being hammered 6-1 by Cienciano in the Copa Sudamericana, which triggered their exit from continental competition entirely, set the tone for Botafogo's recent run: beaten 1-0 at Vitória on 16 August after drawing 1-1 with Fluminense on 8 August. Athletico's recent run looks nothing like it, with four Serie A games unbeaten including a 2-0 win over Santos and a 1-1 draw at RB Bragantino.
Botafogo's absences are severe enough to reshape the game plan entirely. Arthur Cabral serves a suspension, Kaio Pantaleão is out with a knee injury and both Paulinho and Jordan Barrera are sidelined through injury, which strips out the two forwards Bellão was building his attack around. Athletico have problems of their own: Gilberto Moraes is out with ankle tendon pain, Léo Derik misses out with a thigh problem and Stiven Mendoza is a doubt through the same.
Bellão will likely use the pace of Matheus Martins in transition to exploit the space behind Athletico's high defensive line, with Alex Telles influential from set pieces and in building from the back. The problem is that Botafogo have no reliable target to hold the ball up without Cabral or Paulinho, which forces them to find other routes into the game against a side whose 3-4-2-1 is built around protecting the central channels.
Athletico drop into a compact block and invite pressure before springing forward through Kevin Viveros and Luiz Gustavo in midfield. Viveros times his runs into the box in a way that is increasingly difficult to contain, arriving late to finish moves off and Hellmann's side have shown they can absorb absences without losing their ability to spring forward through him, which matters given Mendoza's fitness doubt. If Botafogo try to press high to compensate for their missing forwards, they will almost certainly leave space behind that Athletico's wing backs know exactly how to use.
Athletico lead the head to head 12 wins to Botafogo's seven across 23 meetings, the most recent being that 4-1 win for Athletico on 29 March 2026, which reinforces the point that the visitors tend to hurt Botafogo on the counter even when home advantage is working against them.
Telles's delivery from wide positions is Botafogo's clearest way into the game, especially with Gilberto Moraes absent and Athletico's defensive options already stretched. Athletico are disciplined enough from their own set pieces not to surrender cheap chances in return and their aerial threat from dead balls is real enough to factor in. Athletico arrive with momentum from four unbeaten league games, while Botafogo are still carrying the psychological weight of being taken apart 6-1 in continental competition.
Athletico Paranaense to win 2-1. Hellmann's side have the shape to absorb Botafogo's limited attacking options and the runners to hurt them in transition, Viveros in particular. Luiz Gustavo's anchoring role means Athletico can recover shape quickly when they lose the ball in midfield and Viveros has done it repeatedly this season and will find the space if Botafogo push high. Botafogo may nick a late goal from a set piece but the result is unlikely to be in doubt by then.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
