Chapecoense host Fluminense on 24 October 2026 in a Série A Matchday 32 fixture where the two sides could hardly have less in common. The home side sits 20th with just 18 points from 30 games and a goal difference of minus 32, eight points from safety with a game in hand against Vasco and relegation looks near certain unless something dramatic happens. Fluminense sit fifth on 51 points from 31 games and are still very much in the fight for Copa Libertadores qualification, with a win here firming up their place in the top six while making Chapecoense's situation even bleaker.
Chapecoense arrive having collected just one point from their last five league games, losing to Botafogo (0-1), Athletico-PR (1-4), Vitória (0-4) and Internacional (1-2) while drawing 1-1 with Atlético-MG and conceding thirteen goals in their last four of those contests. Fluminense's form is more mixed, with back to back league defeats to Santos (1-2) and Flamengo (0-1) either side of a 4-0 win over Coritiba and their Libertadores semi-final exit on penalties against Palmeiras has left legs heavy going into this.
Rafael Lacerda was appointed on 30 May 2026 to replace Fábio Matias and must work around six absences: Kauan Faria is suspended, Heitor is out with a hamstring injury, Vinicius Balieiro has knee inflammation, Carvalheira has torn knee ligaments, Robert Santos is still recovering from cruciate damage and Léo is out with a back problem. That is a lot of cover stripped from both defence and midfield at once. Marcão, in the job since 13 August 2026 after Luis Zubeldía's departure, has a shorter absentee list in Millán (thigh), Martinelli (knee), Matheus Reis (knee), Alisson (hip flexor) and John Kennedy (cruciate, out until mid 2027), with Jefferson Savarino also suspended, though even without Savarino and Kennedy, Soteldo, Acosta and Castillo give Marcão enough attacking variety to hurt a defence this depleted.
Marcinho returns from suspension for Chapecoense and will lead the attack alongside Maurício Garcez and Túlio Eduardo. Fluminense counter with Fábio in goal, Thiago Silva driving play from deep and Yeferson Soteldo, Luciano Acosta, Agustín Canobbio and Rodrigo Castillo across the front.
Chapecoense will likely sit deep in a 4 2 3 1, looking to nick something from a set piece or on the counter. With Heitor and Carvalheira both out, they are almost certainly playing an improvised centre back pairing, which leaves them exposed to balls in behind. The main threat for the home side runs through Marcinho, who will look to catch Fluminense's full backs out of position on the break, though he needs a turnover in the right part of the pitch for that to amount to anything.
Fluminense, flexible between 4 2 3 1 and 4 3 3, are likely to build through the middle and look for Soteldo and Canobbio once the defensive shape is pinned. Soteldo and Acosta rotating between the lines, with the full backs providing the width, should pull Chapecoense's midfield two sideways and leave the central channel open for late runners from deep, while Thiago Silva drives from behind the press to give those runners the licence to go.
Fluminense have won all three of their meetings with Chapecoense, including a 2-1 win at the Arena Condá on 26 April 2026 earlier this season.
Marcão has had a week to rest his starters, so the Palmeiras hangover should not be a factor here and Fluminense's own delivery from wide and corners could be damaging against a backline this thin. The one genuine threat Chapecoense can offer is Marcinho at set pieces, which is why we are not backing a clean sheet for the visitors.
Fluminense win this 2-1. Chapecoense's defensive problems are too deep and too widespread, with six unavailable players gutting both their back four and their midfield cover. Soteldo, Acosta, Canobbio and Castillo give Marcão enough attacking variety to see this out comfortably and the only realistic upset involves Marcinho nodding in from a corner while Fluminense are still finding their rhythm.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
