Santos host Bahia at Vila Belmiro on 25 October 2026 in a Matchday 32 Série A fixture with real stakes for both sides' continental ambitions. Santos sit eighth on 45 points, Bahia seventh on 49 and with just four points between them the result could meaningfully shift that picture. Bahia arrive bruised after a 0-3 hammering by Flamengo that left them with three defeats from four going into a match they cannot afford to lose if they want to stay ahead of Santos.
Santos' last five reads W-L-D-W-W, capped by a 2-1 home win over Fluminense on 18 October, with Cuca's 4-2-3-1 having something to do with the upturn. Bahia's L-W-L-L-W is harder to read positively: two wins in five, with three defeats including that 0-3 collapse against Flamengo. By Sunday night one of these sides could be looking at a seven-point gap to close or a one-point one to defend, the table looks very different depending on the result.
Santos are missing across two lines at once, with Lucas Veríssimo and Gonzalo Escobar both out with thigh problems, Willian Arão and Arthur Melo absent from midfield with hamstring injuries, Gabriel Brazão still recovering from shoulder surgery and Vinicius Lira sidelined with a cruciate injury. Bahia are similarly stretched, with Jean Lucas and Román Gómez suspended after accumulating yellow cards and Léo Vieira out with a knee problem, meaning Ceni loses two of his preferred midfield three.
Santos will try to make their injury problems irrelevant by playing through Gabigol, Neymar and Coutinho. Gabigol is around 15 league goals now and is the central reference point up front, Neymar drifts into pockets forcing Bahia's midfield to decide whether a centre back follows him or a midfielder drops and Coutinho feeds them both from deep. The worry is at the other end: without Veríssimo, Escobar, Arão and Melo, Santos are likely to push a high line that leaves them exposed on the counter and both Pulga and Véliz want space in behind rather than the ball to feet, which is exactly what a high Santos line with no cover offers them.
Bahia are built around Rodrigo Nestor's midfield control but without Jean Lucas and Gómez that becomes harder to sustain. If Santos press early and the midfield gaps open up, Ceni's side may end up absorbing rather than dictating. The central match up is Gabigol against Bahia's centre backs, with Neymar's movement the thing most likely to break lines, if Santos score first and force Bahia to chase the game, that attacking trio looks difficult to contain.
The recent head to head is tight, with Bahia winning 2-0 in August 2025 while both April 2025 and April 2026 finished 2-2, across those five meetings neither side has genuinely dominated, with Bahia shading it on wins.
Bahia's set piece delivery could be a problem for a Santos side missing multiple aerial defenders. If Ceni's team slows the tempo and forces Santos into set piece situations rather than open play transitions, they may find a way back into it, Santos' open play quality should generate the cleaner chances overall though and that attacking depth is probably enough to see them through.
Santos 2-1 Bahia. Gabigol and Neymar should have enough to decide this even with a makeshift defence and Bahia's midfield absences make it hard to see how they control the game long enough to nick a result. Bahia will probably score (Pulga and Véliz are dangerous on the break) but Santos take the three points.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
