Chapecoense host São Paulo at Arena Condá on 23 August 2026 in a Série A matchday 24 fixture that means very different things to each side. With 11 points from 22 games, Chapecoense sit 13 points from safety and are in trouble, with every result here carrying survival weight. São Paulo arrive 13th with 27 points but haven't won a league game in nine and a 3-1 aggregate victory over Bolívar in the Sudamericana last week is the only encouraging item in their recent run. Whether that cup result translates domestically is the real question for Dorival Júnior, who has been at the club since 15 May 2026 following Roger Machado's departure. Rafael Lacerda took charge of Chapecoense on 30 May 2026, replacing Fábio Matias and with both managers so recently appointed, there is no meaningful managerial head to head, so this will be decided by systems and squad depth.
Chapecoense's last five reads D-L-D-L-D: three draws, no wins. For a side 13 points from safety, that is not progress. A 3-3 draw with Bahia on 16 August and a 1-2 defeat to Coritiba on 9 August bracketed a Copa do Brasil exit to Cruzeiro. São Paulo's domestic record (W-D-D-L-D) is no more reassuring, with a 1-1 draw with Coritiba and a 1-2 loss to Grêmio both pointing to the same underlying problem. The 3-1 home win over Bolívar on 19 August in the Sudamericana is the outlier but one cup result doesn't fix nine league games without a win.
Chapecoense are without Bruno Tubarão (thigh), Yannick Bolasie (pancreatitis) and Max Alves (back), leaving Marcinho without natural runners on either flank and largely isolated up front. Giovanni Augusto and new signing Yago Felipe will need to supply him from midfield. São Paulo have their own injury problems: Lucas Moura is out with an Achilles rupture, Rafael Tolói is absent with a thigh injury and Damián Bobadilla is a doubt with a knee issue. The Moura absence is the most significant and Dorival Júnior has no obvious like for like cover. He will likely lean on Pablo Maia to hold things together in deeper positions while the full backs push forward to compensate.
Chapecoense are set up to be hard to beat in a 4-3-3 built around staying compact. Their clearest route to goal is deliveries into the box from wide positions, where second balls become dangerous. Without Bolasie and Tubarão, that threat depends heavily on Yago Felipe winning the ball back quickly and releasing Marcinho on the counter. São Paulo's 4-2-3-1 puts Luciano behind Jonathan Calleri, though the wide threat is noticeably reduced without Moura. Maia will need to screen the back four and dictate the pace of possession so São Paulo aren't drawn into a scrappy game on Chapecoense's terms. Calleri is their primary aerial threat and penalty box finisher and Chapecoense's centre backs will need to track him for the full 90 minutes.
The Yago Felipe against Pablo Maia contest is where the match may be won or lost. If Chapecoense can disrupt São Paulo's build up early there is a counter attacking route they can exploit but if São Paulo can slow the game down and force Chapecoense to chase it, the pressure on a back four already missing cover in the wide positions will build steadily. Without natural runners on either flank, the full backs will be carrying a lot across 90 minutes.
São Paulo lead the head to head across 15 meetings with five wins to Chapecoense's four and won the most recent encounter 2-0 in March 2026. Set pieces are Chapecoense's main route to goal with their open play threat diminished by injuries and deliveries from wide with second ball situations around the box will drive whatever they create. São Paulo, missing some defensive personnel, need to be switched on for those moments. Kick off is at 18:30 Brasília time at Arena Condá, where the home atmosphere makes dead ball situations feel even more chaotic.
São Paulo to win 2-1. Chapecoense can make this uncomfortable from dead balls and São Paulo's defensive absences mean they won't deal with every delivery cleanly. But Chapecoense have three key attackers missing and one striker to hold the line and containing Calleri for 90 minutes with that defensive resource is a stretch. Maia should gradually take hold of midfield and once São Paulo slow the game down, the full backs will be carrying too much to hold out. A defeat here puts Chapecoense 16 points from safety with 14 games left.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
