Santos host Athletico Paranaense at Estádio Urbano Caldeira on 9 August 2026 in a Brasileirão Série A Round 22 fixture that means very different things to each side. Santos sit on 22 points from 21 matches and need a strong home performance to put daylight between themselves and the relegation zone, whereas Athletico arrive in third with 37 points and a clear path to continental qualification if they hold their position.
Cuca is in his fourth stint with Santos, which tells you something about how the club operates, while Odair Hellmann has been at Athletico since May 2025 and their direct head to head record as managers is thin enough that it offers no real steer on the afternoon.
Santos' 5-7-8 record is about as mid table as it gets, mixing just enough wins with too many draws to feel genuinely comfortable. They have been steadier at home but converting draws into wins has been an ongoing problem. Athletico are in noticeably better shape at 11-4-6 and recent results back that up: they ground out a goalless draw against Corinthians and followed it with a 2-0 win over Internacional.
Santos are dealing with a pile up of fitness issues. Lucas Veríssimo (calf) is out until late August, Moisés is recovering from an ankle sprain, Gustavo Henrique is expected back around mid August from a thigh problem and Vinicius Lira is gone for the season with an ACL injury. Igor Vinícius has a minor back complaint and Neymar's availability is in doubt over possible disciplinary issues. Athletico are much better placed, with only Mycael out through a leg injury and a few fringe players carrying minor knocks.
Cuca tends to set Santos up in a 4-2-3-1 and lean on set piece deliveries as their primary attacking outlet, while Hellmann's Athletico usually line up in a 4-3-3 or 3-4-2-1 and sit deep before launching quickly on the turnover. Lucas Esquivel and Kevin Viveros look to cut off Santos' supply lines and drive Athletico forward on the break and their task becomes considerably simpler if Neymar, Santos' most dangerous creative option, does not start.
Santos hold the historical advantage with around 13 wins to Athletico's 9 across 27 meetings and have won the more recent encounters too, though Athletico's improved organisation under Hellmann makes a straight extrapolation from history less reliable than usual.
Set pieces are where Santos can genuinely cause problems at home and Athletico defend these situations with discipline before looking to counter quickly off clearances. Squad depth and twelve points of daylight in the table make Athletico the more likely winners.
Athletico Paranaense to win 2-1. They have the better form and the better squad depth and without Neymar, Santos have no natural creator behind the striker, which makes Athletico's midfield press far less risky to deploy. Cuca's side will likely get something from a set piece but Athletico should be able to sit off Santos and hurt them in the spaces behind. Three points for the visitors.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
