São Paulo host Atlético Mineiro at the Morumbis on 5 September 2026 in a Brasileirão Série A match, with São Paulo sitting 11th on 30 points from 24 games, uncomfortably close to the relegation zone despite not technically being in it, whereas Atlético Mineiro are 8th with 36 points, still chasing a Copa Libertadores berth and arriving on the back of a 100 day unbeaten run under Eduardo Domínguez. Both teams run a 4-3-3, though one is grinding to survive and the other is building something.
Dorival Júnior is back at São Paulo for his third stint, having replaced Roger Machado in May 2026 and his record against Atlético across 29 matches is exactly even at 13 wins, 3 draws and 13 defeats. Domínguez took over in February 2026 after Jorge Sampaoli's departure and has had comparatively little direct experience against São Paulo in the time since.
São Paulo's recent results tell a frustrating story: they beat RB Bragantino 2-1 on 31 August but lost 1-0 to Chapecoense on 23 August and the broader pattern is draws and narrow defeats where they have leaned on set pieces rather than open play to create anything, a team feeling its way along the bottom of the table. Atlético have been the opposite, going unbeaten in league and cup and most recently beating Cruzeiro 2-1 in the Copa do Brasil on 2 September, with Cassierra finding the net more regularly and Cuello beginning to link play together in the second phase.
Dorival is without Lucas Moura (Achilles) and Rafael Tolói (injury), losing his main creative link to Calleri and his most reliable ball player at the back. That is not an inconvenience, it changes the shape of what São Paulo can do in this match. Domínguez has his own headaches at the back, with Léo Duarte (hamstring) and Lyanco (heel) both out, forcing a reshuffle in central defence that São Paulo's forwards will look to exploit on the counter, particularly Calleri, who makes his living winning headers against uncertain defenders.
São Paulo under Dorival sit narrow and compact, surrendering possession and looking to win it back before hitting directly over the top or winning a set piece. Calleri leads the attack with seven league goals but without Moura pulling strings in the final third, the creativity around him is thin and while Luciano and Artur are capable on the flanks, neither offers the same kind of release valve. Atlético's version of the 4-3-3 is more expansive: Renan Lodi pushes aggressively from left back, timing his overlapping runs to arrive as a third man when Atlético build through midfield, while Cuello operates between the lines and Cassierra leads the line. The absences of Duarte and Lyanco are a real concern and if Calleri gets on the ball in the air, he could cause genuine problems against whoever comes in at centre back. Artur's directness will meet Lodi's runs on the right flank and in midfield São Paulo's three man block will try to stop Cuello from finding space behind the press.
The most recent meetings have split one apiece: Atlético won in March 2026 while São Paulo took the points in August 2025. When São Paulo keep things tight at the Morumbis and limit Lodi's forward runs while keeping Cuello from getting the ball in space behind the press, they are capable of taking results here, though doing that without Moura to hold the ball and buy time on the break is a much harder ask.
São Paulo are dangerous from dead balls, with Calleri a menace in the air from corners and free kicks, while Atlético threaten similarly through Lodi's delivery from the left and Cassierra's movement from the same situations. With both sides missing centre backs, set pieces carry even more weight than usual and Domínguez's side have shown better organisation in transition as well, which could prove decisive if the game opens up in the second half.
Atlético Mineiro to win 2-1 and the 100 day unbeaten run is not a fluke, Domínguez has kept them functioning with an injury hit backline and the results are the proof. São Paulo's set piece threat means they are rarely out of a game while Calleri is on the pitch and they will probably get on the scoresheet through a header or a penalty, yet without Moura they do not have enough to sustain pressure once Atlético go ahead. Cassierra or Cuello to score the goal that settles it in the second half.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
