The Clássico Baiano always means something and on 23 August 2026 it means a little more than usual, with EC Vitória hosting EC Bahia at the Estádio Manoel Barradas in Round 24 of the Brasileirão Série A. Vitória are 12th on 29 points from 23 matches, trying to put distance between themselves and the relegation zone, whereas Bahia sit sixth with 34 points, protecting a Sudamericana position that still feels fragile. Mid table survival versus continental ambition is the tension here and both sides are going into it short on players.
Jair Ventura took charge of Vitória on 24 September 2025, replacing a string of short tenured coaches, while Rogério Ceni has been at Bahia since September 2023. Their direct meetings have been rare, though in those encounters Ceni has consistently opted for defensive discipline in derby settings, keeping his lines narrow and avoiding the expansive approach that leaves gaps to exploit.
Vitória arrived off a 1-0 win over Botafogo on 16 August that interrupted what had been a grim W-L-L-L-D run and there is real relief in that result for a squad under relegation pressure. Bahia, by contrast, are unbeaten in recent league outings but have not won a league game in over a month, grinding out draws to protect their top six cushion. That is not a crisis, though they are creating fewer clear chances than earlier in the season, which matters going into a derby.
Both squads are genuinely thinned out and that matters more than any tactical plan. Vitória are without Edu, Rúben Ismael, Camutanga, Dudu, Nathan Mendes and Anderson Pato, all injured, which strips away defensive depth, midfield options and attacking rotation in one go. Ventura's response will almost certainly be to keep things compact and lean on set pieces, because there is not much else available to him right now. Bahia have problems of their own: Éverton Ribeiro, Ademir and Léo Vieira are out injured and Erick Carvalho is suspended. Losing Éverton Ribeiro is the most significant blow, as he is the player who links midfield and attack and takes responsibility for dead ball delivery, which means Ceni needs Willian José to do more with his back to goal and Jean Lucas to carry more of the midfield burden.
Vitória's 4-2-3-1 is built around a compact mid block and quick transitions rather than sustained possession. The Botafogo win showed what that looks like at its best: absorb pressure then spring Matheuzinho into half spaces on the break. Ramon's positional flexibility across the back line and midfield will matter with so many absentees and set piece defending becomes a collective effort when you are running short on specialist centre backs.
Bahia's 4-3-3 is harder to run without Éverton Ribeiro to link the lines. Jean Lucas has to drop deeper to dictate tempo, Nicolás Acevedo carries more defensive midfield responsibility and Willian José ends up as the lone pivot bringing wide runners into play almost single-handedly. Vitória will look to exploit Bahia's higher defensive line with direct balls in behind, particularly if the full backs push up and leave space.
The individual battles that will decide this are fairly clear. Matheuzinho against Bahia's left sided defender is pace versus positioning and whichever wins that duel more consistently will shape the game. Renato Kayzer's movement will test Acevedo's ability to stay between the lines without losing shape and Jean Lucas needs to control second ball situations or Vitória will keep recycling into dangerous positions. With both squads depleted, the match will almost certainly hinge on a set piece, a defensive lapse or a single counter that lands at the right moment.
Bahia lead the historical head to head with around ten wins to Vitória's seven and roughly ten draws between them and their most recent meeting ended 1-1 - which is about what you would expect from a fixture that tends to be tight and settled by individual errors or moments of derby intensity madness rather than sustained tactical dominance.
Both sides are relying on set pieces more than they would like given the injury lists. Vitória's delivery from corners and free kicks is a concern for a Bahia backline already missing bodies, while Bahia will look to exploit the gaps that all those Vitória absentees leave in their defensive structure. A draw keeps Bahia's unbeaten streak going but another draw probably is not what they are actually chasing.
Vitória 2-1 Bahia. The Botafogo result showed Vitória can grind out wins when the structure holds and the counter attacks fire at the right moment and Bahia without Éverton Ribeiro and with Erick Carvalho suspended are a blunter, more predictable side. Breaking down a well drilled 4-2-3-1 over 90 minutes without your primary creator is a tough ask. Vitória's set piece threat and Matheuzinho's pace on the break should produce two goals and Bahia's quality is enough for one response. The injury list and recent momentum both point toward a narrow, physical contest decided by dead ball execution, Vitória holding their mid block and converting one of their set piece opportunities is the most likely route to three points, while Bahia need to find a way to create without the players who usually do the creating.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
