EC Vitória host Grêmio FBPA on 7 September 2026 in Brasileirão Série A Round 26 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, with both clubs arriving in genuine need of the points. Vitória sit 13th with 29 points from 25 matches, Grêmio one place below on 28 points from 24 games and neither can afford a slip toward the bottom three. That shared anxiety should show up in how both sides set up.
Jair Ventura and Luís Castro have no managerial record against each other to factor in. Vitória's form reads L-L-W-L-L, their most recent outing a 2-1 away defeat to Atlético MG and they have struggled to close games out across this run. Grêmio's sequence is W-L-L-W-D, capped by a 3-1 home win over Chapecoense on 30 August 2026.
Ventura, who replaced Rodrigo Chagas in September 2025, was confirmed as staying for the rest of the campaign on 4 September 2026, while Luís Castro took over at Grêmio in December 2025 after Mano Menezes departed. Absences complicate things for both. Vitória are without Camutanga (leg fracture), Dudu (back), Edu (Achilles), Nathan Mendes (knee), Riccieli (calf) and Anderson (knee), a list long enough to force adjustments in shape, defensive cover and set piece routines. Grêmio miss Marlon (suspended), Dodi (knee) and Jovane Cabral (muscle), with Marlon's absence leaving a clear gap in midfield screening.
Ventura will likely stick to a 4-4-2 or 4-5-1 with so many defenders out, running play through Matheuzinho and Erick in midfield and pairing Renato Kayzer and Rene up front. Rene leads their scoring with five goals, though the absences of Riccieli and Nathan Mendes at the back may limit how cleanly they can build from defence.
Pavón is the one most likely to thread passes in behind for Carlos Vinicius to run onto, with Francis Amuzu and José Enamorado also available out wide and Vinicius leads the line with ten goals, third in the league. Mathías Villasanti anchors the midfield, though the double loss of Dodi and Marlon means there will be spaces to exploit when Grêmio try to win the ball high up the pitch. The most interesting individual contest is Erick against Villasanti in the centre, while Rene's movement will test Grêmio's centre backs throughout and Grêmio will try to feed Vinicius quickly behind a back line that is already stretched.
Grêmio have been dominant in this fixture historically, winning three of the last five meetings with two draws, including a 2-0 result on 19 March 2026 and they are unbeaten in their last 12 against Vitória. Whether that run reflects genuine superiority or simply better squad depth across those seasons is hard to say but it is a number Vitória cannot ignore.
Both teams have produced from dead ball situations this season, with Vitória's direct free kick threat intact despite the injury list and Grêmio's corner and free kick routines having delivered important goals. Referee Sávio Pereira Sampaio tends to allow physical play, which raises the risk of further bookings given the cards already accumulated. Grêmio arrive off the back of a 3-1 win, though Vitória's home support at Manoel Barradas can pull the home side into a more aggressive mode.
We're going 1-1: Vitória's defensive absences encourage caution early on but Rene's movement against a depleted visiting back line gives them a real avenue to score first. Vinicius's ten goals tell you what Grêmio can do when supply reaches him and with Pavón available to provide it, they should find a way back. The head to head record suggests Grêmio should be doing better than this but with both teams missing key players and both needing points, a draw feels like the honest call.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
