Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall Prediction: Mowbray's Revival Test Against Neil's Set-Piece Power

Blackburn host Millwall at Ewood Park on 12 September 2026 in a Championship match pitching two sides with very different early-season stories against each other. Blackburn are 18th after six games with five points and a goal difference of minus two, while Millwall sit eighth after five matches with nine points and plus two. The home side need a result to stop the slide.

Alex Neil, appointed by Millwall in December 2024 to replace Neil Harris, has a poor record against Blackburn, losing five of his last seven league meetings with them and Tony Mowbray, installed at Blackburn on 5 June 2026 to replace Michael O'Neill, will be well aware of that.

Blackburn arrive on the back of L-L-D-L-W in their last five league games, including a 1-2 defeat at Sheffield United on 8 September and a 1-2 loss to Preston three days earlier. Millwall have gone W-L-L-W-W across the same period, with a 4-0 win over Bolton on 5 September as the standout. Millwall have shown they can absorb a bad run and respond, Blackburn, who have won just once in five, have not managed back-to-back league victories since Mowbray arrived.

Blackburn are without Yuki Ohashi and Mathias Jorgensen, both sidelined with hamstring problems, though Andri Gudjohnsen should be available to lead the attack after recovering from a quad issue. Millwall are also missing Casper De Norre and Josh Coburn through muscle complaints.

Mowbray tends to set Blackburn up in a 4-2-3-1 that prioritises possession and width but without Ohashi and Jorgensen he is leaning heavily on Gudjohnsen's movement to give the team shape in attack. Millwall under Neil operate in a similar formation but with very different intent: organised, physical and content to sit in a mid block and wait for the right moment to transition. The duel between Gudjohnsen and Millwall's defensive anchor Jake Cooper will be central. Gudjohnsen has the ability to drop deep and link play but Cooper is strong in the air and smart positionally and if Millwall stay compact he may struggle to have much impact. Lyndon Dykes offers a physical hold up option who can bring others into the game and with Jorgensen missing, Blackburn's centre backs will be tested at the other end. De Norre's absence weakens Millwall's midfield screen, which could give Blackburn's double pivot more room to play through, though Neil's side have enough defensive discipline to adjust.

Blackburn's full backs push high and the double pivot looks to circulate possession, so Millwall will defend deep and look to exploit the space behind those full backs when they win the ball. The losses of Coburn and De Norre leave Millwall's midfield slightly thinner, though with Jake Cooper dropping deeper to cover when needed, they have a ready-made solution.

Blackburn have won around 30 of their 56 meetings with Millwall, with 14 draws and 12 wins for the visitors. They have won the last three league games between the sides and have not lost at home to Millwall in their last ten league meetings there.

Millwall's threat from set pieces is probably where the game gets decided, particularly with Jorgensen and Ohashi missing. Without Jorgensen, Blackburn's defensive shape at dead balls is less reliable, leaving Cooper and Dykes, both strong in the air, less tightly marked at corners and free kicks. Blackburn have their own set piece delivery to offer with De Norre absent from the Millwall midfield but it is hard to see them matching Millwall in this department.

It is also worth remembering where both clubs stand heading into this: Blackburn need points to get away from the bottom end of the table, while Millwall, who finished third last season with a club record 83 points before losing in the play off semi finals, are trying to prove that was no fluke.

We are going for a 1-2 Millwall win: Blackburn's home record against this opposition is strong and Gudjohnsen's return gives them a striker who can hold the ball and bring midfielders into play but losing both Ohashi and Jorgensen to hamstring injuries leaves their defence more exposed than Mowbray would like. Millwall's set piece delivery and organisational discipline give them the clearest routes to goal, with Dykes and Cooper the likeliest sources of danger.