Millwall host Derby County at The Den on 31 October 2026, a fixture that puts a side with realistic play off ambitions against one that looks increasingly mired in a relegation fight. Millwall sit 13th with 15 points from 12 games, close enough to the top six that a run of home wins could change their season. Derby are 23rd with seven points and one win from their opening dozen matches, leaving John Eustace under mounting pressure and the visitors have already conceded 21 goals. The slide is starting to look less like a rough patch and more like a structural problem.
Alex Neil took charge of Millwall in early January 2025, replacing Neil Harris after David Livermore handled interim duties, whereas John Eustace arrived at Derby on 13 February 2025, succeeding Paul Warne. The pair have not faced each other often enough for their head to head record to carry much weight.
Millwall go into this on a run of L D L W D, including a 1-2 defeat at Portsmouth on 24 October and a 2-2 draw with Lincoln City around 17 October. Derby's last five read D L L D D, the most recent a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United on 24 October. Millwall have been more threatening at home but have not strung results together, whereas Derby have largely avoided losing lately without coming close to actually winning anything.
Millwall are without five players: Tairyk Arconte (ankle), Josh Coburn (muscular), Lukas Jensen, Massimo Luongo and Casper De Norre are all injured, thinning attack and midfield while leaving enough squad experience to hold the defensive shape. Derby's situation is considerably worse, with Charlie Taylor, Matt Clarke, Eiran Cashin, Sondre Langås and Craig Forsyth all injured and Dion Sanderson suspended after a red card. The centre back crisis has become serious enough that the club signed Shane Duffy on a short term deal and he becomes available here.
Millwall will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1 or back three variation, compact defensively and dangerous from set pieces. Neil will need his remaining double pivot to work hard shielding the back line given the midfield absences. Lyndon Dykes leads the attack and holds up play effectively, with Luke Cundle supplying creativity from deeper areas and Camiel Neghli offering width on the right. The loss of Arconte and Coburn reduces forward options, so Millwall will probably recycle possession patiently and look to punish Derby on the counter or from dead balls.
Derby's 4-2-3-1 has been leaking goals all season, partly because the defensive unit has rarely held its shape under pressure and integrating Duffy into a depleted back line at short notice will not make that easier. Szmodics drives most of what Derby try to do in attack, with Carlton Morris looking to run in behind and Bobby Clark operating in midfield. The real concern is the transition: with Sanderson suspended and the remaining centre backs largely untested together, Millwall pressing Derby's defenders into mistakes could leave Duffy and whoever partners him exposed. The central physical battle is Dykes against whatever pairing Derby cobble together and if Millwall can exploit that, they will not need to do anything elaborate.
Millwall's clearest route to three points is to use corners and free kicks against a Derby back line that no longer has its senior aerial presence. Derby's best hope is a quick break through Szmodics and Morris once they win the ball back, though without overlapping runs from the full backs, the width on the counter is limited.
Millwall hold a slight edge across 66 historical meetings, with roughly 26 wins to Derby's 23 and 17 draws and they have not lost to Derby in their last five league meetings, including a 1-0 home win on 10 March 2026 and a 1-1 draw at Derby on 10 December 2025.
Set pieces are Millwall's most reliable weapon at The Den and Derby's depleted defence will face repeated tests from corners and free kicks throughout, with Dykes as the main aerial threat. Derby have struggled to establish themselves in the opposition half this season and a low defensive block from Eustace would suit Millwall's patient, physical approach perfectly. Millwall 2-1 Derby County. Derby may snatch something through Szmodics on the break but Millwall's set piece threat against a makeshift back line missing five injured players and a suspended centre back should be enough to see them through.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
