Matchday 3 of the Championship throws together a Watford side still adjusting to Alessio Dionisi and a West Ham squad that has yet to win a league game since dropping into the second tier. Watford sit seventh with four points from two matches, having gone unbeaten under their new head coach, while West Ham, on one point, are already facing uncomfortable comparisons with their last winless Championship opening in 1980-81. Despite being widely considered the division's strongest promotion candidate, they need to start showing it.
Dionisi and Nuno Espírito Santo have barely crossed paths, so there is no useful head to head pattern to draw on and the recent form of both sides only muddies things further. Watford's last five across all competitions read W-D-L-L-W: a 2-1 win at Southampton to open the Championship campaign, a 1-1 draw with Wrexham and then five conceded at Peterborough in the League Cup. West Ham's last three are W-L-D, featuring a 2-2 draw with Burnley, a 1-2 loss at Charlton and a 4-1 League Cup win over Southampton. What the cup results do confirm is that Nuno's preferred approach, sitting compact, defending solidly and waiting, can still produce goals when the chances arrive.
With no absences on either side, both managers can pick their preferred XI without compromise. Watford are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Matthew Pollock organising the defensive line and Hector Kyprianou sitting deep to give Edoardo Bove freedom to drift between the lines and create. Against a West Ham side that defends in two compact banks of four, Bove will need to find those pockets quickly because the space won't stay open for long. West Ham use the same shape but run it very differently, with Nuno's side defending first and looking to hurt opponents on the counter or from set pieces. Jarrod Bowen on the right is their main attacking outlet, one who pulls Watford's full backs out of shape, while Joel Piroe operates through the middle and, given his recent goalscoring record, is the likeliest finisher when chances come.
How Kyprianou handles West Ham's transitional runners will go a long way to determining the result. If he screens effectively, Bove's creativity should follow and Watford should be able to circulate the ball in the final third but if he can't and Nuno's side start getting behind the defensive line through Bowen in particular, Watford's tendency to leave space in behind when pushing for control exposes the gap between their defensive line and midfield that Peterborough already exploited in the cup.
West Ham have won 8 of the previous 14 league meetings, including the last five in a row, a run that fits neatly with a Nuno side set up to absorb pressure and make opponents pay on the transition rather than match them for possession. Any sloppiness in Watford's shape at set pieces could hand West Ham the kind of lead that structure is built to protect and the 4-1 cup win over Southampton suggested they are starting to click offensively, which makes it slightly harder to back against them here even if their league form looks unconvincing.
0-3. If Kyprianou can't free Bove between the lines, Watford won't have many ways through and when West Ham do get forward through Bowen and Piroe, they have the finishers to punish it. Nuno gets his first Championship win.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
