West Brom sit fourth after beating Norwich 2-1 on opening day, Burnley in mid table after drawing 2-2 at West Ham. Both clubs have Premier League ambitions and need early momentum and with neither manager having faced the other before, there is no coaching head to head to lean on.
West Brom will be without Aune Heggebo, who serves a two game ban and his absence leaves Morrison without a natural target striker, pushing Jimmy-Jay Morgan into that responsibility after his eye catching finishing against Norwich. Burnley are missing Josh Cullen through injury and it is a more significant loss than it might look: Cullen is the organising voice in their midfield, the player who screens the back four and dictates how quickly they move the ball forward and Nicky Hayen has no obvious like for like replacement.
James Morrison's West Brom should line up in a 4 4 2, pressing high in the opening exchanges to force errors before retreating into two banks of four with the forwards cutting off passing lanes. When they recover the ball, Morgan is the primary outlet in transition, tasked with running in behind to pull Burnley's centre-backs out of position and open space for midfield runners arriving late.
Burnley under Hayen favour a 4 2 3 1. Zian Flemming drops deep to link play and cause problems between the lines, while Marcus Edwards cuts inside from wide, takes on full-backs and gets to the byline. Without Cullen, Burnley's midfield loses its organising voice and whoever fills that role will be asked to do considerably more than they are used to.
The key individual battle is Morgan against Burnley's central defenders. His pace is already a problem for this back line, though Burnley's press may limit how often he sees the ball. Edwards, meanwhile, will probe West Brom's full-backs with dribbling and cut ins, forcing Morrison's side to choose between tracking him tightly and leaving space centrally for Flemming, which is the trade-off West Brom will struggle to resolve and the most likely source of Burnley's opening.
The historical record gives West Brom a slight edge overall but four of the last five meetings have finished level, suggesting these teams tend to cancel each other out in open play and that set pieces carry genuine weight here. Heggebo's absence weakens West Brom aerially at corners at both ends and Burnley can exploit that with Flemming making late runs to the near post or back stick. Without Heggebo to attack wide deliveries, that route becomes harder for West Brom to convert.
Burnley to win 2-1. Their possession control and the combined threat of Flemming and Edwards should allow them to carve out the better chances as the game opens up. The draw at West Ham showed Hayen's side can defend deep and spring quickly once space appears in behind and West Brom's tendency to push their full-backs forward in search of a second goal should hand Burnley exactly that. Morgan's finishing and the speed of West Brom's transitions mean they can score but the head to head pattern and the loss of Heggebo tip the balance away from home.
Ryan Baldi
Football Writer
Ryan Baldi is a professional football writer with years of experience and has been featured by respected outlets such as the BBC, The Guardian, Sky Sports, DAZN, FourFourTwo, ESPN, Yahoo Sport and Football365. He has also written several books including Arsène Who?.
